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US Oil Update: Crude Surges as Middle East Conflict Eclipses UAE OPEC Exit

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-- Crude futures climbed in midday trading on Tuesday as a military standoff in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz outweighed the shock of the UAE's departure from OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 4.11% to $100.58 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 2.65% to $111.07/bbl.

US-Iran peace talks remain at an impasse, with efforts to restart negotiations stalled, Saxo Bank strategists said in a note on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, President Trump said in a social media post that Iran wants the US to lift its blockade of the Hormuz and reopen the strategic waterway as soon as possible.

Iran, on the other hand, has signaled it may be willing to accept an interim deal to reopen the Strait in exchange for an end to the blockade, according to media reports.

The double blockade of the Strait by the US and Iran has ground vessel traffic to near zero, choking off flows of crude, natural gas and oil products.

US Marines boarded a commercial vessel in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday, US Central Command said in a post on X, adding they later released the container ship after confirming it would not stop at an Iranian port.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude edged higher as markets assessed Iran's latest proposal to revive peace talks while disruptions in the Hormuz continued to constrain global energy supplies.

The latest data from Kpler show that only six vessel crossings were recorded, up two day-on-day, all moving west to east and evenly split between commercial and non-commercial activity.

The shipping data firm said access to the strategic waterway remains uncertain as Iran advances a new negotiation proposal, with the modest uptick in daily crossings indicating caution rather than a meaningful recovery in traffic.

Japanese crude very large crude carrier Idemitsu Maru completed a transit via the Hormuz carrying 2 million barrels of crude, which was loaded from Saudi Arabia's Juaymah terminal in early March, according to Marine Traffic.

Meanwhile, the UAE will leave OPEC on May 1, a significant blow to the producer group as the global energy market grapples with the massive supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.

Neil Crosby, a Sparta Commodities analyst, said the producer cartel is facing renewed questions over its long-term cohesion after the UAE's departure, though the immediate impact on global oil balances remains muted.

In the short term, it means very little for oil balances with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the analyst told, adding that the implications are more in the longer term if and when the OPEC+ group returns to its prior role in the market.

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