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US Equity Indexes Mixed This Week as Hormuz Reopening Timeline Uncertainty Boosts Inflation Concerns

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US equity indexes traded mixed this week as concerns over the reopening timeline for the Strait of Hormuz boosted crude oil and heightened inflationary concerns, undermining investor sentiment from the tech trade.

* The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 on Friday versus 7,398.93 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite stood at about 26,225.15, compared with 26,247.08 a week earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 49,526.17, versus 49,609.16 at the end of last week.

* Energy, consumer defensive, and technology led the gainers this week.

* "The market could be pinning too much hope on the US-China talks yielding some positive results on Iran," ING Bank said in a note. "Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war, and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz."

* Expectations that Hormuz will quickly return to normal maritime traffic levels in June are based on "magical thinking" and underestimate the political and operational barriers to restoring flows, RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note.

* Consumer and wholesale price inflation data were hotter than expected this week, complicating the path for interest rate cuts.

* Lower monthly inflation prints after the oil shock fades, and a labor market softening, will likely be needed for Fed rate cuts this year, Goldman Sachs said in a note. It expects energy cost passthrough likely to keep core personal consumption expenditures inflation closer to 3% than 2% all year.

* On Friday, US Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year up 14.2 basis points to 4.6%, the highest in about a year. The two-year soared 8.7 basis points to 4.08%, the strongest level since February 2025.

* The probability of a 25 basis-point increase in interest rates in December surged to 39% on Friday from 14% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The comparisons for September were 17% from 12%, and, for October, the data showed 27% versus 22%.

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