US Biofuels Update: US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes Push Soybean Complex Lower

-- Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Thursday amid an extended selloff, as headlines suggested the US and Iran were nearing a peace agreement.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 0.21% lower at $11.92 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 1.16% lower at 74.15 cents per pound.

On Wednesday, the June ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 2.96% lower at $1.97 per gallon.

The US announced on Thursday that "Project Freedom" will resume guiding commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz with naval and air support.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said the soybean market fell for a third straight day but also found support on an attempted move below the 50-day moving average of $11.89 for July futures.

"The soybean market will be watching for reports of any potential frost damage to emerged crops through the recent cold spell, with 13% emerged according to the USDA to begin the week. Otherwise, beyond next week's WASDE, President Trump's planned visit to China is likely the most consequential event on the market's near-term horizon," Montgomery said in a daily note.

For the week ending April 30, the US Department of Agriculture reported an increase of 5.2 million bushels or 141,900 metric tons of soybean export sales in 2025-26 and an increase of 0.2 mb or 5,500 mt for 2026-27.

Last week's export shipments of 19.5 mb were above the 17.5 mb needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate of 1.540 billion bushels in 2025-26. Soybean export commitments now total 1.430 bb in 2025-26 and are down 18% from a year ago.

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection

US natural gas futures erased early losses and maintained higher prices in after-hours trade on Thursday after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in domestic gas inventories, triggering short covering and reinforcing expectations that the spring supply-demand balance may be tightening modestly.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract rose 1.90% to $2.782 per million British thermal units.The US Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by 63 billion cubic feet, below analyst expectations for a 72-80 Bcf build and under the five-year average increase of 77 Bcf for the week.The bullish storage surprise prompted buying in front-month contracts after futures had traded lower ahead of the report, Barchart said.Despite the smaller injection, supply levels remain ample. US gas inventories were 2.8% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average.The Energy Buyers Guide said the market will likely be focused on "whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance".Analysts at Gelber & Associates said the price lift "reinforced the idea that the spring balance is not quite as loose as consensus had assumed," the firm said, adding that the market still viewed the move as a near-term adjustment rather than the start of a sustained rally, noting that elevated inventories continue to limit upside potential for winter contracts."The rally is doing more to firm up summer risk than to meaningfully reprice next winter when storage remains above the five-year average," the firm said.Analysts also pointed to competing forces in the broader market, with strong LNG exports supporting prices while robust domestic production continues to weigh on sentiment.According to Barchart, citing data from BNEF, US lower-48 dry gas production on Thursday was estimated at 110.9 Bcf per day, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Demand across the lower 48 states was estimated at 71.0 Bcf/d, up 10.2% year over year.Flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the prior week due to maintenance slowdowns.Gelber said the market can pop on a bullish storage surprise but still "needs either sustained heat, a more persistent slowdown in supply growth, or a string of smaller injections to make the move stick beyond the near-term contracts."

US Biofuels Update: US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes Push Soybean Complex Lower

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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Small Storage Injection
US natural gas futures erased early losses and maintained higher prices in after-hours trade on Thursday after government data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in domestic gas inventories, triggering short covering and reinforcing expectations that the spring supply-demand balance may be tightening modestly.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures and the continuous contract rose 1.90% to $2.782 per million British thermal units.The US Energy Information Administration said natural gas inventories for the week ended May 1 rose by 63 billion cubic feet, below analyst expectations for a 72-80 Bcf build and under the five-year average increase of 77 Bcf for the week.The bullish storage surprise prompted buying in front-month contracts after futures had traded lower ahead of the report, Barchart said.Despite the smaller injection, supply levels remain ample. US gas inventories were 2.8% above year-ago levels and 6.7% above the five-year seasonal average.The Energy Buyers Guide said the market will likely be focused on "whether this storage miss was a one-off or a harbinger of a more durable shift in the underlying fundamental balance".Analysts at Gelber & Associates said the price lift "reinforced the idea that the spring balance is not quite as loose as consensus had assumed," the firm said, adding that the market still viewed the move as a near-term adjustment rather than the start of a sustained rally, noting that elevated inventories continue to limit upside potential for winter contracts."The rally is doing more to firm up summer risk than to meaningfully reprice next winter when storage remains above the five-year average," the firm said.Analysts also pointed to competing forces in the broader market, with strong LNG exports supporting prices while robust domestic production continues to weigh on sentiment.According to Barchart, citing data from BNEF, US lower-48 dry gas production on Thursday was estimated at 110.9 Bcf per day, up 4.5% from a year earlier. Demand across the lower 48 states was estimated at 71.0 Bcf/d, up 10.2% year over year.Flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 5.9% from the prior week due to maintenance slowdowns.Gelber said the market can pop on a bullish storage surprise but still "needs either sustained heat, a more persistent slowdown in supply growth, or a string of smaller injections to make the move stick beyond the near-term contracts."

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