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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Futures Shrug Off Stalled Middle Eastern Peace Talks, Surge Higher

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-- Biofuels feedstock futures closed higher, with the soybean complex leading crop futures higher on Monday, despite another round of canceled peace talks in the Middle East over the weekend.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 1.15% higher at $11.92 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 0.48% higher at 71.67 cents per pound.

On Monday, the June ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 1.66% higher at $1.99 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said that the soybean market ignored the stalled peace talks between the US and Iran.

"Soybean meal futures rallied sharply on Monday, likely the result of spread trading as soybean oil has taken a historically large share of crush value through 2026 thus far and traders are likely working to unwind some of that," Montgomery said in a daily note.

He added that Brazil's record crop leads market participants to think China doesn't need to buy US beans. "However, a deal of some sort at next month's meeting can't be ruled out, and in terms of world soybean demand, it is the most pivotal event on the market's horizon currently."

On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture's Weekly Export Inspection Report showed that soybean bookings totaled 23.1 million bushels for the week ending April 23. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.206 billion bushels, down 20% from the previous year.

USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.540 bb in 2025-26, down 18% from the previous year. Soybean inspections are running behind USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 20% above the previous five-year average.

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