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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Futures Plunge on US-China Trade Uncertainty

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed sharply lower on Thursday, as soybean traders awaited more concrete details on a potential China trade deal.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 2.97% lower on Thursday at $11.92 1/2 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 0.89% lower at 73.66 cents per pound.

The Nymex June ethanol futures contract settled 1.02% higher on Wednesday at $1.98 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said Thursday's session was dominated by algorithmic headline trading, sending nearby soybean futures to their worst daily loss in two months

"Traders were clearly hoping for more explicit details and trade volume commitments from President Trump's visit to China, taking the opportunity amid little news to heavily sell against record net-long futures positions built up through the spring," Montgomery said.

For the week ending May 7, the US Department of Agriculture reported an increase of 3.8 million bushels or 102,100 metric tons of soybean export sales in 2025-26 and an increase of 3 mb or 80,800 mt for 2026-27.

Last week's export shipments of 24.7 mb were above the 16.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA's export estimate of 1.530 billion bushels in 2025-26.

Soybean export commitments now total 1.434 bb in 2025-26 and are down 19% from a year ago. That is even with USDA's estimated pace, at a time when USDA's estimate of US-ending soybean stocks is 16% above the previous five-year average.

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