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US Biofuels Update: Midwestern Frost Threat Pushes Up Soybean Futures

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-- Biofuels feedstock futures closed higher on Friday, with soybeans posting moderate gains heading into the weekend, especially on new crop futures where calendar year highs were also achieved.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 0.50% higher on Friday at $12.01 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 0.78% higher at 75.12 cents per pound.

On Thursday, the July ethanol futures contract on the Nymex ended 1.59% lower at $2.01 per gallon.

Ethanol's performance this past week was mixed, according to The Digest's weekly price assessments.

Its Low Carbon Fuel Standard value of $0.13 per gallon remained compared with the previous week. Its energy value of $0.74/gal and Renewable Fuel Standard value of $1.13/gal were flat from a week ago. Also, the retail price of $2/gal was unchanged from a week ago.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said traders built in weather risk on Friday, amid a Midwestern frost threat for the weekend.

"The market reflected an early dose of weather risk to close this week, with cold temperatures overnight throughout the Midwest causing frost, and another round possible for next week as well. Given the record-fast start to planting thus far this season, there is some concern that emerging soybeans (8% of the crop as of last week) could be at risk," Montgomery said in a daily note.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Fall Late Afternoon

Energy stocks fell late Friday afternoon with the NYSE Energy Sector Index and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) each falling 1.1%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index dropped 0.6%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index declined 0.5%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3% to $101.93 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent dropped 1.9% to $108.33 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures rose 0.8% to $2.79 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) reported declines in Q1 earnings amid supply disruptions due to the Middle East war, though the results came in ahead of Wall Street's estimates. Exxon shares fell 0.6%, and Chevron declined 1.2%.BP (BP) is considering exiting part or all of its operations in the UK North Sea in order to strip assets and pay down debt, Bloomberg reported. BP shares fell 2.1%.Portland General Electric (POR) shares fell 4% the company reported Q1 earnings and revenue that missed estimates.Occidental Petroleum (OXY) appointed Chief Operating Officer Richard Jackson to succeed Vicki Hollub as president and CEO, starting June 1. Occidental shares declined 3.3%.

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International

Scotiabank Sees Bank of Canada Rate Hikes, Flags Inflation Risks And CAD Impact

Scotiabank said it is doubling down on its forecast for the Bank of Canada to begin tightening monetary policy over the second half of the year, citing rising inflation risks and stronger economic drivers.From 2.25% at present, the bank said it thinks the policy rate will rise to 3% by year-end.Scotiabank Economics has forecast hikes by the end of 2026 since last November. One more was added in March in response to supply chain and commodity shocks related to the war with Iran."The BoC just opened the door wider to a rate change." It said "... if the economy evolves broadly in line with the base case, changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small." But in which direction?" the bank said in its latest foreign exchange outlook."A rate cut scenario that hinged upon higher US tariffs against Canada was presented. It lacks credibility in our view. One reason is that it would prompt excessive easing of financial conditions. With markets priced for 50-75bps of hikes this year, a 25bp cut would strike that out, add the cut, probably price 1-2 more, and result in short-term market rates plunging by 100bps or more," said Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics.The effect would tank the Canadian dollar, driving more import price pressures, said Holt adding that the bank remains "cautiously optimistic" toward trade negotiations."A hike scenario was also presented by the BoC and conditioned on higher-for-longer energy prices. Yet it's not just energy prices as evidenced by the BoC's own measure. Canada is importing higher incomes through higher prices for many of the products it sells with trickle down effects into domestic incomes and more resulting spending. Smaller deficits driving increased federal spending represent one such example equal to 1/2% of NGDP this year and 1/4% next year; the BoC's communications did not have time to incorporate this added fiscal stimulus that further merits higher rates. Inflation risk has pivoted higher," noted Holt.

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US Markets

Roblox Growth to Moderate Near Term Due to Age-Check Rollout, UBS Says

Roblox's (RBLX) growth will likely decelerate in the near term amid engagement headwinds tied to a mandatory age-check rollout, UBS Securities said in a Friday client note.The video game platform reported a first-quarter loss late Thursday as bookings fell short of consensus estimates. The company implemented an age-check feature for accessing chat, a move that slowed new user acquisition and hampered growth, Roblox said in a shareholder letter.In addition, management tempered growth expectations for full-year revenue and bookings."We became the first large online gaming platform to introduce age checks to access chat on a global basis," Chief Executive David Baszucki told analysts during an earnings call late Thursday.The stock plunged 18% ahead of market close on Friday, and is down 44% so far this year."We still see Roblox as a beneficiary of secular trends in gaming and expect platform enhancements to support its ability to drive user growth/spend over time," UBS analysts including Christopher Schoell wrote in the note. "That said, we remain neutral given expectations for moderating near-term growth and engagement headwinds from age verification/regulatory shifts."UBS slashed its price target for Roblox shares to $49 from $74.For the second quarter, Roblox guided to 8% to 12% bookings growth, well below Wall Street's 29% estimate, according to the brokerage."We believe platform enhancements/content breadth will support Roblox's ability to drive user growth long-term, particularly in overseas markets where headroom remains," Schoell said. "That said, we see a transition period in the coming quarters with 49% of global users still remaining unverified, (versus) 55% last (quarter)."Price: $45.51, Change: $-9.75, Percent Change: -17.64%

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