-- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday projected global oil demand growth for 2026 at 1.4 million barrels per day, unchanged from its forecasts last month.
In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by a further 1.3 mmb/d year over year, also unchanged from the forecasts in March, the group said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.
Liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to grow by 600,000 b/d on average in 2026 versus 2025. Growth in 2027 is also estimated at 600,000 b/d over 2026 levels. Both assessments are also unchanged from last month's update.
This increase in output is primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, the US, and Argentina.
Natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation are expected to grow by 100,000 b/d over the year in both 2026 and 2027, averaging 8.8 million b/d and 8.9 million b/d, respectively.
Meanwhile, crude oil production by countries participating in the DOC averaged 35.06 million b/d in March, down about 7.70 mb/d month-over-month, compared to 42.72 million b/d reported in February, OPEC said, citing data from secondary sources.
Refining margins surged last month across all major regions amid a significant decline in product output and widening middle distillate crack spreads, which recorded multi-year peaks, the group said.
"Trade flow constraints and refinery run cuts in the East of Suez contributed further pressure on product margins amid the heavy refinery maintenance season. This situation led to a price increase for products that outpaced the rise in feedstock prices, boosting refining profitability," OPEC said.
On the US Gulf Coast, gains were seen across all products but primarily driven by middle distillates, while in Rotterdam gains helped square off losses in gasoline and low-sulphur fuel oil. In Singapore, all products except middle distillates reported losses as a significant spike in feedstock costs limited the upside for refining margins in Asia, the report said.
OPEC also retained its assessment from last month for global economic growth at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
"Following sound global GDP growth in 2025, estimated at 3.3%, the global economy is expected to be able to generally absorb temporary events like trade-related challenges and the current Middle East geopolitical developments," the report added.