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FINWIRES

UBSは、2026年の利益率回復を前に、シェブロンの再生可能燃料事業の潜在的な成長性が見過ごされていると指摘した。

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-- UBS証券は月曜日のレポートで、シェブロン（CVX）のルイジアナ州ガイスマー工場における生産能力拡張は、2025年の再生可能ディーゼルおよびバイオディーゼルのマージンが低迷するため、過小評価されていると指摘した。 米国環境保護庁（EPA）が改定した再生可能量義務（Returnable Volume Obligations）は、バイオマス由来ディーゼルの混合比率の大幅な増加を義務付けており、UBSはこれが2026年から2028年にかけて収益キャッシュフローに「非常に力強い転換点」をもたらすと予測している。シェブロンはこの期間に4億4000万ドルのEBITDA増益を見込んでいると、同レポートは述べている。 シェブロンとブンゲ・グローバル（BG）の合弁事業は、大豆処理能力を拡大し、切り替え機能を追加したことで、大豆および軟質種子の圧搾マージンに直接的なエクスポージャーを得たと、UBSは指摘している。 ディーゼルおよび圧搾マージンは2026年に大幅に上昇し、シェブロンのキャッシュフローに10億ドルの増益をもたらすと、同レポートは述べている。 UBSはシェブロン株の買い推奨を維持し、目標株価を218ドルとした。 シェブロン株は火曜日の取引で2.6%下落し、ブンゲ株は0.2%上昇した。

Price: $186.72, Change: $-5.06, Percent Change: -2.64%

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Crude Oil Prices Rise on Stalled U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Crude oil prices rose on Monday as talks to end the war between the U.S. and Iran remain frozen and flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted.Brent crude at last look gained 2.7% to US$108.17/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.4% to $96.63/barrel. The U.S. and Iran appear to still be far apart on issues including Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of the strait, Reuters said in a Monday report."The diplomatic stand-off means that every day 10-13 million barrels of oil fail to get to the international market, worsening an already tight oil balance. Therefore, there is only one direction for oil prices to go," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecasts to $90/barrel for Brent and $83/barrel for WTI, citing reduced output from the Middle East, the report said.

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Commodities

Japan Resorts to More Coal, Nuclear During Energy Crisis Sidelines Renewables, Says IEEFA

Japan is leaning on higher nuclear output and ramping up use of coal in power generation as contingency measures in the face of the global energy crisis, but these measures are simultaneously smothering renewables, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Monday.Temporary increased use of coal was decided upon to reduce the need for now-scarce LNG while the restart of some nuclear power plants is also providing additional resilience to supply shocks which have hit Asian nations hardest.IEEFA said this risks displacing domestic renewable energy which can supply just as much energy security but lower cost and it could also increase curtailment and undermine investment in more renewables, up-ending progress on decarbonization.Most of Japan's coal imports, about 71%, come from Australia, making it a safe option that reduces exposure to disrupted Middle Eastern logistics, the IEEFA report noted.But a shortage of diesel for plant operations at J-Power's Matsuura 2 gigawatt coal-fired power station slashed its output by 50% while the JFE Steel Fukuyama facility was halted over a shortage of heavy oil, underscoring that coal is not fully detached from oil and gas's geopolitical risk.Japan typically imports 4 million tons of LNG that pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing about 6% of its total imports.As of March, 15 of Japan's 36 nuclear reactors were operating, as that sector recovers from the multiple impacts of the Fukushima disaster.They generate a combined 37 GW. Bringing the remainder online could cut Japan's LNG needs by 12.5 million tonnes, IEEFA said. Regulatory changes in early April were introduced, facilitating more restarts.Backing up its argument that more coal and nuclear, both less flexible power sources, could increase curtailment of renewables, IEEFA said that each nuclear restart in Japan has been followed by a reduction in renewables generation.Curtailments in Japan have risen to 1.9 terrawatt hours by 2023, up from 100 GWh in 2018. In the first half of 2025, curtailments were faster still at 1.7 terrawatt hours for a six-month period.The fact that output from coal and nuclear can not rapidly be increased or slowed means it can be difficult to make room for renewable supply on the grid when its output rises.IEEFA said that limitations in Japan's grid infrastructure is an additional constraint that limits absorption of renewable power and led to a situation in March where it curtailed renewables while importing power from abroad.IEEFA suggests that the addition of battery storage to the grid could go some way to boosting its flexibility.Curtailment of renewables output has another inherent problem in that it leads to a less favourable economic case for later additions of zero carbon generation capacity, the report said, all the more so because Japan does not compensate renewables suppliers for curtailments, a practice common in Europe.Developers are adding battery storage as a work-around to that, securing contracts that remunerate battery-discharged electricity instead of directly generated then consumed electricity.The addition of batteries adds to project costs however at a time when investor interest has yet to turn into large scale deployment, with erosion of revenue support measures a further deterrent, IEEFA said.

Research

UOB Kay Hian Upgrades Hana Microelectronics to Buy from Hold; Price Target is THB38

Hana Microelectronics (BKK:HANA) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of 25.44 Thai baht, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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