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FINWIRES

UBSが今週発表されるカナダの労働市場レポートをプレビュー

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-- UBSは、金曜日に発表される4月の労働力調査(LFS)データが、年明け以降カナダの雇用市場で見られる傾向を裏付けるものになると予想していると述べた。 同行は顧客向けレポートの中で、人口増加率の鈍化と労働力参加率の低下により、雇用増加ペースの減速にもかかわらず、失業率は比較的安定していると指摘した。 UBSは雇用者数が5,000人増加すると予測しているが、季節要因の変化と、昨年に比べて今年の非季節調整済み雇用フローが大幅に増加すると考える理由がほとんどないことから、リスクは下方修正されている。 同行は、失業率は小数点以下を四捨五入した数値で6.7%にとどまると予測しているが、四捨五入しない数値では数ベーシスポイント低下する可能性があるとしている。3月の失業率は小数点以下3桁まで6.714%で、2月と全く同じだった。 UBSは、正社員の平均週給が前月比0.23%上昇し、前年同月比の上昇率は5.1%から4.8%に低下すると予測している。全労働者については、月間上昇率は約0.14%と予想され、年率の上昇率は0.1ポイント低下して4.6%になると見込んでいる。

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