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Tractor Supply Facing 'Modest Risk' to Fiscal 2026 Outlook, Morgan Stanley Says

-- Tractor Supply (TSCO) is facing a "modest risk" to its 2026 outlook amid traffic declines in Q1 and softer demand in the companion animal segment, Morgan Stanley said in a Wednesday note.

The company reported fiscal Q1 earnings Tuesday of $0.31 per diluted share, down from $0.34 a year earlier, while net sales increased to $3.59 billion from $3.47 billion. According to Morgan Stanley, Tractor Supply projects fiscal 2026 comparable sales growth of 1% to 3% and $2.13 to $2.23 in adjusted EPS.

Morgan Stanley estimated that the companion animal segment's comparable sales declined by about 3.5% in Q1. The segment could weigh on the company's 2026 outlook due to weaker demand as it is estimated to comprise low-20% of sales for the remainder of the year, the brokerage noted.

There is also a risk that traffic remains flat-to-negative due to weaker consumer sentiment and increasing competition, among others, Morgan Stanley added.

Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Tractor Supply to $45 from $57, with an equal-weight rating.

Price: $39.15, Change: $-0.42, Percent Change: -1.06%

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