-- TPH Energy Research raised its long-term Henry Hub gas price outlook to $4.50 per million British thermal units by 2029, it said in a Friday note.
The firm said growing Gulf Coast demand will outpace supply later this decade, increasing pressure on the US natural gas market despite weak fundamentals expected through 2027.
TPH lifted its mid-cycle Henry Hub estimate for 2029 to $4.50/MMbtu from $4/MMbtu previously, while the 2027 gas strip recently declined toward about $3.50/MMbtu, closer to the firm's existing base-case forecast.
Storage inventories could exceed 4 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2027 under TPH's model, prompting the firm to warn that gas prices may need another 25-cent to 50-cent decline to slow production growth.
The research firm said lower prices could force dry gas producers to shift closer toward maintenance programs next year.
TPH expects 2028 to mark a turning point for the market, with stronger gas demand overtaking supply growth and reducing storage levels toward roughly 3.65 Tcf.
Further consumption growth could push US gas storage down to nearly 2.3 Tcf by 2029, creating tighter supply conditions across the domestic market, according to TPH.
To maintain adequate winter gas deliverability, TPH said the US may need significantly higher Gulf Coast supply growth by 2030 or narrower spreads between domestic and international gas prices.
The firm estimates the international arbitrage spread currently sits near $1.50/MMbtu, a level that could continue encouraging LNG exports instead of keeping more gas supplies inside the US market.
TPH said Henry Hub prices may need to rise toward $4.50/MMbtu, while the US could also need to curtail as much as 5 billion cubic feet per day of LNG exports by 2030 to maintain sustainable domestic gas inventories.