FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

TPH在公布第一季度业绩后，维持对加拿大自然资源公司的“持有”评级；目标价为70.00加元。

By

-- 周四，Tudor, Pickering, Holt 维持对加拿大自然资源公司 (CNQ.TO, CNQ) 股票的“持有”评级，目标价为 70.00 加元。此前，该公司公布了加拿大第一大石油生产商的第一季度业绩。 鉴于2025年后的净债务水平，此次业绩更新总体上符合预期，但亮点包括正式提高资本回报率以及第一季度现金流超出预期约4%。第一季度业绩方面，主要指标包括调整后营运资金（AFFO）为43.7亿加元，而TPHe/Street的预期分别为41.9亿加元和42.6亿加元（每股收益2.09加元，而TPHe/Street的预期分别为2.01加元）。与模型预测的差异主要归因于实际收益和费用，这些因素抵消了产量带来的影响。日产量为164.3万桶油当量，略低于TPHe/Street的165.7万桶油当量和165.1万桶油当量，主要受油砂业务的影响，其中油砂原地开采量为2.75亿桶油当量，而TPHe/Street的预期分别为2.79亿桶油当量和2.76亿桶油当量；油砂开采量为5.88亿桶油当量，而TPHe/Street的预期分别为5.94亿桶油当量和5.95亿桶油当量。尽管4月份的产量下降…… OSM 630mbopd 的运行率预示着第二季度前景良好（TPHe/Street 587/587）。在资产负债表和资本返还方面，净债务目前已远低于 160 亿加元，促使 CNQ 计划将 75% 的自由现金流返还给股东。这一计划已开始生效，4 月份的股票回购总额已达约 3 亿美元，与第一季度的回购活动（15 亿美元的资本返还，其中包括 12 亿美元的股息和 3 亿美元的股票回购）持平；分析师 Jeoffrey Lambujon 写道：“TPHe H2'27+ 按现货价格计算，最终将回购比例提升至 100%，净债务低于 130 亿加元。” （报道北美、亚洲和欧洲主要银行和研究机构的股票、商品和经济研究。研究机构可通过以下链接联系我们：https://www..com/contact-us）

Price: $59.80, Change: $-2.46, Percent Change: -3.95%

Related Articles

Australia

Whirlpool Outlook Cut Comes as Iran War Drives Appliance Industry Downturn; Shares Tumble

Whirlpool (WHR) lowered its full-year guidance late Wednesday as record-low consumer sentiment triggered by the Iran war drove a downturn in the US appliance industry, company officials said Thursday.Shares of the appliance maker slumped 12% intraday Thursday. The stock is down 33% so far this year.The company now expects adjusted per-share earnings of $3 to $3.50 in 2026, compared with its previous estimate of $7. Analysts in a FactSet survey expect $4.83. Full-year revenue is pegged at about $15 billion, down from its prior guidance of $15.30 billion to $15.60 billion. Wall Street is looking for $15.26 billion."Consumer sentiment was already on a very low level by any historical standard, but the war in Iran amplified consumer concerns about the cost of living," Chief Executive Marc Bitzer said during an earnings call on Thursday, according to a FactSet transcript.US consumer sentiment plunged to a record low in April as near-term inflation expectations logged the biggest monthly increase in a year, the University of Michigan said last month. Energy prices have surged in the aftermath of the US-Israel war with Iran that has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appears to be holding, with the two sides said to be closing in on a peace deal.Demand in the American appliance industry declined 7.4% in the first quarter, Bitzer told analysts."This level of industry decline is similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis, and even higher than during other recessionary periods," he said. "While we do believe that the negative industry demand in March was somewhat of an outlier, we do not anticipate a full recovery and are now forecasting US industry demand being down by 5% on a full year base."Whirlpool reported a first-quarter adjusted loss of $0.56 per share late Wednesday, swinging from earnings of $1.70 per share a year earlier. The Street expected non-GAAP EPS of $0.38. Revenue fell 9.6% to $3.27 billion, falling short of the $3.44 billion consensus estimate."Our results in the first quarter were negatively impacted by the ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical events that have developed since late February," Chief Financial Officer Roxanne Warner said on the Thursday call.Meanwhile, the company decided to suspend its quarterly dividend starting in the second quarter."This decision is critical to ensure we create the capacity on our balance sheet to pay down debt and fund organic growth," Warner said. Whirlpool expects to pay down more than $900 million of debt this year.The guidance cut and dividend suspension were likely needed to support Whirlpool's de-levering efforts, RBC Capital Markets analysts Mike Dahl said in a note emailed Thursday. However, these two actions may still may not be enough to "quickly fix leverage," Dahl said.Price: $47.17, Change: $-7.56, Percent Change: -13.81%

$WHR
Australia

Dutch Bros' Limited-Time Offers Contributed to Q1 Beat, But Competitive Overhang Remains, RBC Says

Dutch Bros' (BROS) solid underlying improvement continued in Q1, with limited-time offers contributing to the top and bottom line beat, but the competitive overhang remains, RBC Capital Markets said Thursday.While April same-store-sales growth of nearly 5% was only slightly above Street's 4.7% Q2 estimate, RBC believes there is room for upside given success of limited-time offers and merch drops in Q1, according to the note.Starbucks' (SBUX) North America same-store-sales acceleration in Q1 did not appear to affect Dutch Bros' traffic growth, though a competitive overhang remains, the firm said. Management also does not see any impact from Starbucks' Energy Refresher launch, the brokerage said.The company slightly raised its full-year unit growth outlook to more than 185 net adds from 181 previously, according to the firm. While Street estimates are unlikely to move much higher, RBC believes management sounded confident about potential upside.RBC maintained an outperform rating on Dutch Bros with a price target of $75.Shares of Dutch Bros fell more than 8% in Thursday trading.Price: $53.45, Change: $-5.61, Percent Change: -9.50%

$BROS
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Keeps Sell Opinion On Shares Of Tc Energy Corporation

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Our 12-month target price of CAD71, raised CAD5, reflects a combination of relative valuation and DCF model analyses. On a relative basis, we apply a 12.0x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2027 EBITDA, in line with TRP's historical forward average. This approach yields a value of CAD73 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using free cash flow growth of 10% per year for 10 years, 2.5% thereafter, discounted at a WACC of 5.7%, yields intrinsic value of CAD69 per share. We cut our 2026 EPS estimate by CAD0.18 to CAD3.63 and 2027's by CAD0.12 to CAD3.78. We think project pipeline remains strong, and TRP has been executing well on bringing new projects into service. Nonetheless, we think shares are already trading at rich valuations, at a 15% premium to TRP's historical forward average on EBITDA, and a 29% premium on forward cash flows. At current pricing, we think it may be difficult for shares to surprise to the upside.

$TRP