FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Toyota Forecasts 22% Profit Drop for Next Fiscal Year on Middle East Headwinds

By

Toyota Motor (TYO:7203) warned that net income attributable to shareholders would slump 22% to 3 trillion yen in the fiscal year ending March 2027, as the world's largest automaker struggles to absorb shocks from the Middle East conflict.

Sales for fiscal year 2027 are predicted to inch up 0.6% to 51 trillion yen, according to Toyota's fiscal year 2026 results published Friday.

In a presentation accompanying its results, Toyota said the company may be unable to absorb the newly added impact from the Middle East.

Bloomberg noted, citing data from the Japan Automobile Manufacturer's Association, that Japan's domestic carmakers import about 70% of their aluminum materials from the Middle East.

"[W]e expect operating income to decline for the third consecutive year. We believe this is because our response to changes in the operating environment has been limited to measures that can be implemented in the short term, while progress on the business structure transformation that should be pursued from a mid- to long-term perspective remains only partway complete," Toyota said.

Toyota is targeting sales of 10.5 million Toyota and Lexus-branded vehicles in fiscal year 2027, boosted by strong demand at home. The company expects Japan sales to grow 25% next fiscal year, while overseas sales are forecast to decline 3%.

Meanwhile, production of these vehicles are predicted to grow to 10 million units from 9.9 million units in fiscal year 2026.

For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, Toyota's net profit plunged 19% year on year to 3.99 trillion yen, with earnings per share shrinking to 295.25 yen from 359.56 yen.

Sales rose 5.5% year on year to 50.69 trillion yen, which it attributed to increased vehicle sales volume and the effects of price revisions that offset the 1.4 trillion yen impact of US tariffs.

Operating income, however, tumbled 21.5% year on year to 3.77 trillion yen.

"Despite the impact of US tariffs, we were able to secure profits in line with our guidance due to increased vehicle sales volumes and the effects of price revisions underpinned by strong product competitiveness, as well as steadily accumulated improvement efforts such as expanded value chain revenues," Toyota said.

Consolidated vehicle sales in fiscal year 2026 rose to 9.6 million units from 9.4 million units in the previous year, on the back of strong demand in Japan and North America.

Toyota lifted its annual dividend for fiscal year 2026 to 95 yen per share from 90 yen per share a year earlier. It expects to raise its full-year dividend for the next fiscal year by 5 yen to 100 yen per share.

Related Articles

US Markets

Japan Services Activity Hits 11-Month Low as Middle East Conflict Drives Input Costs to One-Year High

Japan's service sector growth slowed to an 11-month low in April as rising costs and weaker demand weighed on activity, while companies raised prices at one of the fastest rates on record, adding to concerns over mounting inflationary pressure ahead of a possible Bank of Japan rate increase.The au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI business activity index fell to 51 in April from 53.4 in March, marking the weakest expansion since May 2025, according to data compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence. A reading above 50 indicates growth.New business growth also softened to the slowest pace since October, while export demand contracted for the first time in five months as uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict and elevated prices weighed on overseas sales.At the same time, input costs rose at the fastest rate in a year, driven largely by higher fuel and import expenses tied to the conflict and a weaker yen. Companies passed those costs on to customers, pushing selling prices to the third-steepest increase since the survey began in 2007.The broader composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, eased to 52.2 from 53, though manufacturing output expanded at the fastest pace in more than 12 years amid front-loaded demand."Underlying data indicated that the slowdown stemmed from more subdued growth across the service sector, as manufacturers reported the quickest rise in output in over 12 years amid reports of front-loading due to thewar in the Middle East," said S&P Global Market Intelligence's Economics Associate Director Annabel Fiddes.The data adds to signs that Japan's economy is entering a more difficult phase for policymakers, with slowing activity coinciding with persistent inflation pressure."The business mood continued to be dampened by lingering uncertainty over the war and the possibility of future price hikes and softer customer demand. Notably, optimism around the year-ahead slipped to the lowestsince the COVID-19 pandemic in August 2020," Fiddes added.Separate government data showed real wages in March rose 1% from a year earlier for a third straight monthly increase, while nominal wages climbed 2.7% to 317,254 yen. However, wage gains continued to lag inflation, with consumer prices rising 1.6%.The combination of softer services demand and accelerating price pressures could complicate the Bank of Japan's policy outlook as markets increasingly price in a possible rate increase in June. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged in April but warned that inflation could overshoot expectations as companies continue shifting toward higher wages and prices.

Nikkei 225
US Markets

S&P 500, Nasdaq Snap 2-Day Record Run as Oil Prices Rise in Volatile Session

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell from record closing highs on Thursday as oil prices rose in what turned out to be a choppy trading session for crude.The S&P 500 closed 0.4% lower at 7,337.1, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.1% to 25,806.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.6% to 49,597. All three indexes snapped a two-day advance that propelled the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to all-time highs.Barring communication services and technology, all sectors were in the red, led by materials and energy.West Texas Intermediate crude was last up 0.7% at $95.73 a barrel, swinging between gains and losses during Thursday late-afternoon trade. Brent was up 0.1% at $101.36. Both benchmarks fell sharply Wednesday amid prospects of a diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran.Iran is still reviewing "messages" from the US via Pakistani mediation, CNN reported, citing Iranian media. Tehran has set out new rules for ships looking to transit ross the crucial Strait of Hormuz, the news outlet reported."Markets continue to be cautiously optimistic toward the prospect of a US-Iran deal to end the war despite the appearances of the US administration pumping the deal vastly more than the other side," Scotiabank said in a note.US Treasury yields were higher, with the 10-year rate up 4.5 basis points at 4.40% and the two-year rate rising 5.4 basis points to 3.92%.In company news, Tapestry (TPR) raised its fiscal 2026 outlook after delivering a third-quarter beat, but provided a subdued fourth-quarter sales guidance for its Kate Spade brand. The luxury fashion company's shares slumped 12%, the second-worst performer on the S&P 500.Planet Fitness (PLNT) shares slid 31% after the fitness center operator tempered its full-year expectations amid fewer-than-projected member additions in the first quarter.Shake Shack (SHAK) shares plummeted 28% after the fast food chain operator's first-quarter results fell short of Wall Street's estimates amid weather-related headwinds.Datadog (DDOG) shares surged 31%, the top gainer on the S&P 500. The software maker raised its full-year outlook after posting first-quarter results that topped the Street expectations.In economic news, US job cuts increased in April to the third-highest total for the month since 2009 as technology companies continued to announce layoffs amid a shift toward artificial intelligence, Challenger Gray & Christmas said Thursday.The report comes ahead of the official April nonfarm payrolls data to be released on Friday.Official data are expected to show that the US economy added 65,000 nonfarm jobs in April, compared with a 178,000 increase reported for the previous month, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus. On Wednesday, ADP (ADP) said that employment in the US private sector grew at its fastest pace in more than a year.Gold was up 0.3% at $4,709.90 per troy ounce in Thursday late-afternoon trade, while silver jumped 2.7% to $79.40 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$ADP$DDOG$PLNT$SHAK$TPR
US Markets

Airbnb Trails First-Quarter Earnings Views, Beats on Revenue Amid Demand Strength

Airbnb's (ABNB) first-quarter earnings lagged Wall Street's estimates, while the vacation rental company reported higher-than-expected revenue amid demand momentum.Earnings per share rose to $0.26 from $0.24 a year earlier, but trailed the FactSet-polled consensus of $0.30. Revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $2.68 billion, above the Street's $2.62 billion view.Revenue benefited from strong growth in nights stayed and "a meaningful increase" in average daily rate, Airbnb said in a shareholder letter.Gross booking value, which includes host earnings, service and cleaning fees and taxes, advanced 19% annually to $29.2 billion, compared with $27.82 billion modeled by analysts.Nights and seats booked grew 9% to 156.2 million, compared with the Street's 155.8 million view. The metric represents the total number of nights booked for stays and seats booked for services and experiences, net of cancellations and alterations."We're navigating a period of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty," the company said. "We saw that show up in slightly elevated cancellations this quarter in (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) and Asia Pacific, primarily driven by the conflict in the Middle East."For the second quarter, Airbnb forecast revenue of $3.54 billion to $3.60 billion, reflecting annual growth of 14% to 16%. The consensus is for $3.46 billion.Gross booking value is seen rising in the low-double-digit range amid gains in nights and seats booked, Airbnb said.The company expects the full-year revenue growth to accelerate to low to mid-teens, compared with the prior outlook that called for growth of at least low double digits. The consensus indicates $13.71 billion in revenue this year.Shares rose 1.8% in after-hours trade. The stock is up about 3.5% since the start of the year through Thursday's close.

$ABNB