Tesla's (TSLA) recent share-price pullback now better reflects softer electric-vehicle demand and the company's current spending cycle while still leaving room for its long-term ambitions in AI-driven cars and robots, UBS Securities said Tuesday in a report.
UBS forecasts 1.6 million auto deliveries in 2026, down 1% from a year earlier, and expects deliveries to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7% to about 2.1 million by 2030, below the 3 million consensus estimate.
Tesla's robo-taxi service in Austin, Texas, which has expanded more slowly than expected, could begin adding more vehicles and riders later this year, and the company may be able to offer lower per-mile pricing than rivals, the report said.
While CEO Elon Musk has said Optimus Gen3 production could start this summer with high-volume output in 2027, UBS expects the humanoid robot to take longer to ramp up and sees potential parts-supply challenges given the current reliance on China.
Tesla shares continue to trade more on sentiment and momentum than fundamentals, the report said. UBS raised its rating on the stock to neutral from sell and maintained its $352 price target.
Price: $365.78, Change: $+13.36, Percent Change: +3.79%