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Strait of Hormuz Vessel Traffic Stays Lower on Twin Blockade Pressure, Bloomberg Analysis Says

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Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below historical averages, as an effective US-Iran blockade continued to disrupt vessel movements in the strategic waterway, according to a Bloomberg analysis on Wednesday.

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait stood at 11 ships on Tuesday, down from an average of 16 a day over the weekend. Citing two US officials, the Wall Street Journal reported that over 20 ships actually completed the passage on Tuesday, nearly double the figure appearing on public tracking monitors.

The global economy faces a critical need to swiftly restore traffic flows via the Hormuz after a shortfall of more than 400 million barrels in oil shipments.

The disruption has fueled a 31% surge in oil prices since the onset of the Middle East conflict, with European natural gas prices recording similar gains.

Iranian oil exports have remained resilient near pre-war levels despite a sharp slowdown in traffic via the strategic waterway, providing a critical financial lifeline for Tehran while helping stabilize global oil markets.

Though broader shipping volumes in the region have buckled under the strain of ongoing conflict, Iran's ability to maintain exports has so far mitigated the impact of Western-led efforts to isolate its economy.

US Central Command said on Wednesday that no vessels had breached its blockade, noting that nine ships complied with military orders to return to Iranian waters.

Some vessels are only reactivating their transponders once they are clear of the Strait, creating a lag in transit data. However, even with these delayed reports, daily volumes are lower than the 135-ship average recorded a year ago, the analysis revealed.

Iran closed the Hormuz to international shipping on Feb. 28, within 24 hours of coming under US-Israeli attack.

The US initially refrained from blocking Iranian shipments to stabilize surging global oil prices, even easing sanctions on Tehran's exports. However, the US shifted its strategy following the collapse of ceasefire talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Sunday.

The new blockade, which targets nearly all of Iran's maritime activity, took effect on Monday evening local time.

Both the US and Iran have said they can breach the other's blockade. Tehran reportedly said one of its oil supertankers had broken a US blockade, without naming the vessel.

The Greek-owned Agios Fanourios I also transited the Hormuz and entered the Arabian Gulf on its second attempt. Automated Information System tracking data indicates the vessel is bound for the Iraqi port of Basra.

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