SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Tuesday economic news summary pointed out:

-- Brent dips below $100/barrel, US dollar (USD) offered, 10-year United States Treasury retraces below 4.30%. Sources: President Trump officials are internally discussing details for a potential second, in-person meeting with Iranian officials before the ceasefire expires next week.

Treasury Secretary Bessent: The Federal Reserve is doing the right thing by sitting and watching how the Iran conflict plays out. Bessent adds the economic data was very strong in January-February, expects inflation surge to be transitory -- Semafor.

China's trade surplus plunged to $51.1 billion in March from $91.0 billion in February. Exports slowed sharply to 2.5% year over year versus the January-February average of 21.8% -- likely more holiday distortion than Middle East conflict. Q1 exports up 14.7% versus 5.5% in 2025.

Day ahead: Federal Reserve speakers Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson. U.S. producer price index, weekly ADP. European Central Bank speakers Lagarde and Makhlouf. Bank of England's Mann, Bailey and Greene. The International Monetary Funf publishes WEO update.

Nikkei +2.3%, EUR 10-year IRS -3.5bps at 3.08%, Brent crude -1% at $98.4/barrel, Gold +0.7% at $4,766/oz.

TSX Closer: The Index is Up For the Eighth Time In Nine Sessions, Led By Interest-Rate Sensitive Sectors

The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Monday, rising for the eighth time in nine sessions, helped by interest rate sensitive sectors like Information Technology and Financials as Desjardins said its "new path" for oil prices would tend to suggest a slightly earlier tightening in monetary policy in 2027 than previously assumed.The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite closed up 183.48 points to 33,879.24, also buoyed by Base Metals and Energy, even with gold and oil prices off recent highs. Among sectors, Info Tech was up 4.5% and Financials up near 1%, while Base Metals was 1.25% higher.According to FactSet, as of Friday, the TSX month-to-date was up 2.83% and year-to-date up 1,983.00 points, or 6.25%. This left the index off 2.45% under its record close of 34,541.27 set on March 2.Desjardins was among those to publish a note looking at Middle East developments and their implications for its oil assumptions. Desjardins economists Jimmy Jean and Marc-Antoine Dumont said their base case forecast for oil prices now assumes a disruption that lasts longer than anticipated in the March Economic and Financial Outlook."Shortfalls seem likely to extend through mid-2026 and we believe that they will be only partially offset by emergency reserve releases and incremental gains in production elsewhere," the pair wrote. "On net, we estimate a cumulative supply loss of roughly 550-million barrels over the coming year. Production is expected to recover gradually but with a lag, implying a period of tighter inventories and elevated prices even if tensions cool."Reflecting this altered supply path, Desjardins now leans towards a revised oil price outlook, seeing benchmark WTI crude at an average US$100 per barrel through April and May vs. US$80 to US$85 in March, before declining gradually. "These projections remain highly sensitive to the volatile and unpredictable nature of the conflict and the actions of the parties involved, which could materially affect our forecasts," Desjardins said.If this path materializes, Desjardins added, headline inflation in Canada would be pushed higher, but underlying inflation pressures would remain more contained, given the current starting point of excess capacity and soft labor market. "The terms-of-trade and energy capex boost still needs to be weighed against the hit to household finances and confidence, as well as the margin compression in energy-intensive sectors," they noted.Desjardins said its new path for oil prices would tend to suggest a slightly earlier tightening in monetary policy in 2027 than previously assumed, but not a material shift in the policy path at this time. Desjardins added it will publish its detailed estimates in an Economic and Financial Outlook next week, taking into account latest developments.Of commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil tested the US$100 per barrel mark before falling back after the United States said it will blockade Iran's ports after weekend peace talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement to end hostilities. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed up $2.51 to settle at US$99.08 per barrel, after earlier touching US$105.63, while June Brent oil was up US$3.92 to US$99.12.Gold prices weakened for a second session Monday as the dollar rose after weekend talks between the United States and Iran failed to reach a peace deal, leaving the Strait of Hormuz blocked and continuing the largest-ever oil supply shock. Gold for May delivery was last seen down $19.90 to US$4,767.50 per ounce.

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Pilgrim's Pride Prices Tender Offer for 6.250% Senior Notes

Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) said Monday it will pay $1,056.90 per $1,000 principal amount of notes accepted in its tender offer for up to $250 million of its 6.250% senior notes due 2033.The company said it does not expect to accept all notes that have been tendered at the early tender date of April 10 because they exceeded the maximum tender amount.Pilgrim's Pride said it will accept the notes on a prorated basis using a proration factor of about 53%, with April 14 as the early settlement date.Price: $35.04, Change: $-0.40, Percent Change: -1.13%

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SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

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