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S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit Records as Iran Steps Closer to Peace Deal, AMD's Q1 Results Fire Up Chipmakers

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-- US equity indexes rose after midday Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite scaling new highs as Iran closed in on a peace deal and Advanced Micro Devices' (AMD) Q1 results sparked a rally in semiconductors.

The Nasdaq traded 1.6% higher at 25,737.8 after touching a record 25,741.14 intraday. The S&P 500 was up 1.2% to 7,342.9 after hitting an all-time high of 7,348.35 earlier in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.1% to 49,818.9.

Communication services, industrials, materials, and technology led the gainers, while energy was the steepest decliner in midday trading.

The White House is close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war with Iran and set a framework for more detailed negotiations about Tehran's nuclear ambitions, Axios reported, citing two US officials and two other sources briefed on the issue. While nothing is final yet, the sources said this was the closest the duo has been to an agreement since the war began.

Washington's MoU, if Iran accepts it, will lead to a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump warned Iran that "bombing starts" again if a deal is not reached, according to multiple media reports.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures sank 6.8% to $95.47, and Brent crude futures plunged 7.9% to $101.97.

US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 6.2 basis points to 4.35%, extending its retreat from the highest in about a month. Two-year yield slumped 6.9 basis points to 3.87%.

In precious metals, gold futures advanced 2.8% to $4,697.9, and silver futures surged 5.4% to $77.59.

In company news, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares surged nearly 17%, among the top gainers on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, after the chipmaker overnight posted stronger-than-expected fiscal Q1 results and issued an upbeat Q2 revenue outlook.

Out of the 10 top performers in a category for companies with a market capitalization of more than $200 billion, over half were from the semiconductor industry, according to data compiled by Finviz. AMD's results reinforced growing confidence in the accelerating demand for artificial intelligence-related products and services.

Walt Disney's (DIS) fiscal Q2 results beat estimates amid revenue gains across all business operations, and the media and entertainment giant reiterated expectations that growth will accelerate in H2. Shares jumped 6.7%, the Dow's top gainer.

In economic news, employment in the US private sector grew at its fastest pace in more than a year in April, ADP data showed Wednesday, ahead of nonfarm payrolls due later in the week. Private jobs grew by 109,000, representing the fastest growth pace since January 2025, the payrolls processing firm said. The consensus was for 120,000 in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The March print was revised down to 61,000 from 62,000.

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Advanced Micro Devices Set to Command Half of Growing Server CPU Market, BofA Says

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to capture about half of the total addressable market for server central processing units, which the company expects will exceed $120 billion by 2030, BofA Securities said in a note emailed Wednesday.The chip maker's updated forecast for server CPU TAM is double its previous estimate amid rising agentic artificial intelligence demand, according to the brokerage.The server CPU market is now expected to grow more than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030, AMD Chief Executive Lisa Su said late Tuesday during an earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.The company previously expected market growth of 18% annually over the next three to five years.BofA expects AMD to capture a roughly 50% share of the server CPU market, with the remaining half split between rivals Intel (INTC) and Arm (ARM)."Rising CPU TAM is good for all CPU vendors, but we expect AMD to maintain/expand share on (the) back of broad portfolio, rising enterprise focus, continued cloud leadership and consistent roadmap execution," BofA analyst Vivek Arya wrote. "Separately, we expect AMD to potentially announce other large customers for GPUs for (2027) and beyond."Shares of AMD surged 18% in Wednesday afternoon trade.The company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter results late Tuesday, as demand for AI infrastructure pushed data center revenue higher year over year."Inferencing and agentic AI are increasing the need for server CPU compute as these workloads require additional CPU processing for orchestration, data movement, and parallel execution in addition to serving as the head nodes for GPUs and accelerators," Su told analysts during the earnings call. "As a result, we are seeing both stronger near-term demand and deeper engagement with customers on long-term capacity planning."AMD currently represents about 6% of the AI TAM, and that figure is expected to grow toward double digits by 2030, Arya said.Still, AMD remains "exposed to uncertain share allocation between numerous OpenAI suppliers" including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO) and Cerebras Systems, he said.Following AMD's first-quarter results, BofA raised the company's 2026 and 2027 pro-forma earnings per share estimate by 9% each to $7.28 and $11.80. The brokerage is projecting AMD's 2030 EPS potential at more than $27, above management's $20-plus target.BofA reiterated AMD's buy rating and lifted the price target to $450 from $310.Price: $417.82, Change: $+62.56, Percent Change: +17.61%

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Oil & Energy

OPEC Production Slumps to 36-Year Low on Iran Conflict Impact, Bloomberg Survey Says

OPEC crude production slumped to its lowest level in 36 years last month as an ongoing Iran conflict choked off Persian Gulf exports and forced a wave of supply shut-ins, a Bloomberg survey showed on Wednesday.Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell by 420,000 barrels per day in April to an average of 20.55 million b/d. The total marks the group's lowest production ceiling since 1990, led by deepening supply disruptions in Kuwait and Iran.Last week, the producer group also faced another setback when the UAE announced its formal departure. Bloomberg's April survey includes figures for the UAE for the final month before its exit takes effect on May 1.Kuwait registered the group's steepest decline in April, with output falling by 470,000 b/d to an average of 800,000 b/d.Iran followed, after initially sustaining exports in the early phase of the conflict while restricting use of the strait by others, but has since come under mounting pressure from a US-led blockade on shipments.However, despite the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC agreed over the weekend to a nominal increase in output quotas for June.The symbolic move is intended to maintain the alliance's pre-war strategy of restoring production, though analysts noted the hikes remain largely "on paper" given the current maritime blockade.

Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Strong Buy Opinion On Shares Of Arista Networks, Inc.

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month target at $175, based on 48.2x our 2026 EPS estimate. We increase our 2026 EPS estimate by $0.10 to $3.63 and 2027's by $0.17 to $4.42. While ANET was able to raise its full-year guidance, it was lower than we expected due to some notable challenges. It experienced industry-wide supply shortages, particularly in wafers, silicon chips, CPUs, optics, and memory. These shortages increased procurement costs and limited its ability to fully meet strong customer demand. Gross margin was under pressure due to a combination of higher supply chain costs (especially for memory and silicon) and a shift in customer mix toward larger accounts, which tend to have lower margins. It also paid more to secure supply continuity, further impacting margins. Lead times for critical components, particularly high-end chips used in AI platforms, were extremely long, sometimes extending to 52 weeks or more, requiring ANET to make multiyear purchase commitments and increasing the risk of inventory imbalances.

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