-- Rystad Energy週三表示,歐洲離岸風電擴張計畫正面臨渦輪機供應緊張和價格上漲的雙重挑戰,而該市場越來越依賴少數幾家製造商。 Rystad指出,由於GE Vernova(GEV)因營運受阻而暫停接收新訂單,西門子歌美颯和維斯塔斯的產品基本上成為歐洲開發商僅有的選擇。 Rystad發現,自2020年以來,渦輪機的售價上漲了40%至45%,遠超同期20%至25%的製造成本漲幅。 製造成本的上漲主要集中在渦輪機技術最複雜的零件上,例如包含發電機、齒輪箱和電力電子設備的機艙。 Rystad的研究也指出,葉片製造也面臨越來越大的壓力。 Rystad指出,設備供應瓶頸導致此類再生能源部署的進展如今至少與政治野心一樣,取決於設備的可用性。 研究報告稱,高需求、有限的供應商基礎以及渦輪機日益複雜的特性意味著製造商擁有「真正的定價權,並能夠選擇性地決定哪些項目得以建造」。 Rystad總結道,歐洲需要擴大製造能力或找到解決這些問題的變通方案,否則將無法實現其2030年再生能源目標,並且需要為已安裝的容量支付更高的成本。 報告指出,在近期交付給海上工程的設備中,14兆瓦至15兆瓦的大型渦輪機佔據主導地位,超過了9兆瓦至10兆瓦的渦輪機。 Rystad的研究揭示了除零件成本之外的一個不太明顯的趨勢,強調部分價格上漲是製造商在通膨高企時期之前簽訂的固定價格供應合約遭受損失後做出的反應。 Rystad公司表示,在賣方市場中,製造商不再感到有壓力透過這種合約模式承擔此類風險,而是將未來成本上漲的更多部分轉嫁給了開發商。
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