-- Rystad Energy周三表示,欧洲海上风电扩张计划正面临涡轮机供应紧张和价格上涨的双重挑战,而该市场越来越依赖于少数几家制造商。 Rystad指出,由于GE Vernova(GEV)因运营受阻而暂停接收新订单,西门子歌美飒和维斯塔斯的产品基本上成为欧洲开发商仅有的选择。 Rystad发现,自2020年以来,涡轮机的售价上涨了40%至45%,远超同期20%至25%的制造成本涨幅。 制造成本的上涨主要集中在涡轮机技术最复杂的部件上,例如包含发电机、齿轮箱和电力电子设备的机舱。Rystad的研究还指出,叶片制造也面临着越来越大的压力。 Rystad指出,设备供应瓶颈导致此类可再生能源部署的进展如今至少与政治雄心一样,取决于设备的可用性。 研究报告称,高需求、有限的供应商基础以及涡轮机日益复杂的特性意味着制造商拥有“真正的定价权,并能够选择性地决定哪些项目得以建设”。 Rystad总结道,欧洲需要扩大制造能力或找到解决这些问题的变通方案,否则将无法实现其2030年可再生能源目标,并且需要为已安装的容量支付更高的成本。 报告指出,在近期交付给海上项目的设备中,14兆瓦至15兆瓦的大型涡轮机占据主导地位,超过了9兆瓦至10兆瓦的涡轮机。 Rystad的研究揭示了除零部件成本之外的一个不太明显的趋势,强调部分价格上涨是制造商在通胀高企时期之前签订的固定价格供应合同遭受损失后做出的反应。 Rystad公司表示,在卖方市场中,制造商不再感到有压力通过这种合同模式承担此类风险,而是将未来成本上涨的更多部分转嫁给了开发商。
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