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Research Alert: Strong Execution, Softer Outlook: Record Margins Amid Mixed Signals

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

Itron's Q1 2026 results beat consensus with revenue of $587M (vs. $572M estimate) despite a 3% decline and non-GAAP EPS of $1.49 (vs. $1.24 estimate), though down $0.03 Y/Y. Record adjusted gross margin expanded 490 bps to 40.7%, fueled by strong execution and projects ahead of schedule. We view these results as validating the business mix evolution, with Outcomes growing 22% to $96M and service revenues surging 30% across all segments, while the new Resiliency Solutions segment contributed $16M. Q2 guidance of $560M-$570M revenue and $1.25-$1.35 EPS came well below consensus of $606M/$1.46, requiring management clarity on project timing explanations. We believe the declining backlog (down 6% to $4.4B) coupled with Networked Solutions revenue declines represent a worrisome double headwind worth monitoring. However, our long-term thesis remains intact as we see the revenue shift toward AI-powered grid analytics as positive, supported by robust $79M free cash flow and accelerating demand in the Outcomes segment.

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