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Research Alert: Shell: Q1 2026 Net Profit Meets Consensus View; Guides For Lower Gas Output

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

Shell's Q1 2026 adjusted net profit of USD6.9B (+24% Y/Y) was within market expectations but above our forecast, doubling sequentially from USD3.3B in Q4 2025 due to volatile energy markets from the Middle East conflict that caused Brent crude to reach USD81/bbl (+27% from Q4). We have reservations about the sustainability of these results given the exceptional trading conditions rather than operational improvements, with broad-based earnings led by Chemicals & Products swinging to USD1.9B profit from a USD66M loss as refinery utilization surged to 99%. Q2 2026 guidance signals significant disruptions, with Integrated Gas production forecast to be down 30%-36% and LNG volumes declining 9%-14% due to conflict impacts, including on its Qatar operations. Balance sheet deteriorated materially, with net debt rising to USD52.6B and gearing to 23%, while a USD11.2B working capital outflow, including USD6.7B inventory increases, raises concerns about potential reversals if commodity prices normalize, in our view.

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