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Research Alert: Oil & Gas E&p: Uae Departure From Opec Should Have A Long Fuse

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

The UAE departed OPEC on Friday, removing the cartel's third-biggest member with 3.64 mmb/d crude production, trailing only Iraq (4.50 mmb/d) and Saudi Arabia (10.40 mmb/d). The departure gives the UAE flexibility to boost production beyond current quotas, though it remains constrained by Persian Gulf blockades limiting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. We think the impact is likely a 2027 event, as the UAE exports 2.75 mmb/d but its Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline only handles 1.5 mmb/d, making incremental volumes dependent on Strait transit. The departure could enhance crude oil volatility for 2026-2027. We think 2026 will see considerable scarcity, benefiting E&Ps with spot exposure over the next two quarters while prices stay high. We see high potential for an oil price debacle in 2027 when more crude reaches markets, coupled with economic toll from nosebleed prices. Even U.S.-centric firms like FANG remain price-takers exposed to global crude pricing.

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