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Research Alert: Mtdr: A Q1 Eps Beat Despite Weak Natural Gas Pricing

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CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

MTDR reported Q1 EPS of $1.53, beating consensus by $0.26, due to above-guidance production of 207,594 boe/d versus the 200k-205k boe/d range and 1.1% above consensus. Oil pricing was flat at $72.83/b compared to $72.38/b in Q1 2025, while natural gas prices plummeted 82% Y/Y to $0.64/MMBtu due to Permian Basin congestion, though natural gas comprised only 42% of total production, limiting adverse impact. The Hugh Brinson pipeline expected online in Q3-Q4 should provide relief, adding potential $90M annually per $0.50/MMBtu price improvement with 500k MMBtu/d firm transportation capacity. Management reaffirmed full-year capex guidance while raising production estimates, citing efficiency gains from multi-well completions and reduced diesel consumption through electric fracturing fleets. We expect significant free cash flow improvement with MTDR projecting $1.1B-$1.2B for CY 26 versus $437M actual in CY 25, reflecting operational innovations and anticipated natural gas pricing recovery.

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