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Research Alert: F: Q1 Well Ahead Of Expectations, But Revised Guidance Raises Questions

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

Ford (F) posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.66 vs. $0.14, well ahead of the $0.19 consensus. The beat was driven by stronger-than-expected sales and margins, as automotive revenue rose 6.4% to $39.82B ($1.0B ahead of consensus) and adjusted EBIT margin expanded 560 bps to 8.1%. Results included a $1.3B one-time IEEPA tariff benefit reflecting amounts paid between March 2025 and February 2026. Ford raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5B-$10.5B from $8.0B-$10.0B, the midpoint of which is well above the $8.87B consensus. Ford's guidance for 2026 adjusted FCF and capex was unchanged at $5B-$6B and $9.5B-$10.5B, respectively. Shares initially surged higher on the beat and increased guidance in after-hours trading, but quickly gave back the gains, as the release begged the question of why Ford didn't raise full-year earnings guidance by an even greater amount in light of the $1.3B IEEPA tariff benefit. It appears to be mainly due to the company's expectation of a greater commodity cost headwind in 2026 (~$2B).

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Research Alert: Allstate: Underwriting Strength Fuels Significant Q1 Eps Beat

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:ALL reported Q1 operating EPS of $10.65 vs. $3.53 in the prior year, topping our $6.85 estimate and the $7.24 consensus forecast. The strong results were led by improved underwriting performance. Q1 revenue growth of 3% was below our 4%-8% forecast, though P-C earned premiums rose 5.5%. The combined ratio improved to 82.0% from 97.4% on 44% lower catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio (ex-catastrophes) improved to 80.3% from 83.1%, validating the success of previous rate increases. The recent $2B sale of the employer voluntary benefits business, part of ALL's broader restructuring strategy, will free up capital for redeployment into core P-C operations. We expect ALL to maintain pricing discipline despite anticipated increased competition, particularly in auto insurance. The company's strong underlying underwriting results demonstrate the success of aggressive rate increases that were implemented to address adverse claim trends. We look forward to management's pricing outlook on the April 30 call.

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