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Research Alert: CFRA Maintains Hold Opinion On Shares Of The Mosaic Company

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CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

We lower our 12-month target by $5 to $23, on an EV/EBITDA of 6x our 2026 EBITDA estimate (from 6.3x), in line with shares' three-year average forward multiple. We lower our 2026 EPS to $1.41 from $1.83 and 2027's to $2.20 from $2.39. We reiterate our Hold opinion. MOS is curtailing phosphate production given sulfur and ammonia cost headwinds, while releasing higher-priced inventory to manage cash flow. This strategy drove phosphate EBITDA down 58% Y/Y in Q1, though potash segment strength (EBITDA +15% Y/Y) provides a partial offset. Management is also reducing capex to preserve liquidity during this period of margin compression. While management remains optimistic on long-term demand fundamentals and expects fertilizer prices to eventually rise to cover inflated input costs, the timing of input cost normalization remains uncertain given persistent geopolitical supply shocks. At 6x 2026 EBITDA, in line with historical averages and reflecting our reduced earnings outlook, shares appear fairly valued.

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