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Research Alert: Ar Q1 2026: Cash Cost Improvements And Volume Growth On The Horizon

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-- CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:

AR kicked off 2026 with Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.15 vs. $0.78, beating consensus by $0.01. Adjusted EBITDAX of $723M rose 32% Y/Y on strong pricing and record production of 3.9 Bcfe/d (up 13%). Natural gas realizations averaged $5.57/Mcf, a $0.53 premium to NYMEX. Net production benefited from 21% Y/Y gas volume growth to 2.6 bcf/d. We see the $2.8B HG acquisition (closed Feb '26) as a key catalyst. Management expects 15% Q2 cash cost reductions and integration benefits. AR guides to CY26 production of 4.1 bcfe/d (20% Y/Y growth) and all-in cash costs of $2.25-$2.35/Mcfe, down $0.10 at midpoint. We estimate AR has 45% hedge protection in '26 at $3.91/MMBtu and 30% in '27. This provides downside support while maintaining upside to spot prices. Given Qatar LNG capacity losses and AR's 2.3 Bcf/d of LNG-linked sales in Q1, we see rising pressure to source incremental U.S. gas. This supports our constructive view on pricing.

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