Airlines operating in the long-haul European routes are staring at a potential fuel cost penalty of over $8 billion between May and August arising from the need to take longer flight paths to avoid the Middle East conflict zones, according to a report published Tuesday by aviation fuel management technology provider i6 Group.
The report, which cites operational data from almost 300 airports tracked by i6's Fusion6 platform, projected the industry-wide rerouting fuel cost due to the ongoing Middle East conflict between $5.6 billion to $8.4 billion for May to August, with structural fuel costs expected to eat into peak-season profits.
"Since the restrictions on Middle East airspace began on February 28, 2026, airlines operating Europe-to-Asia and Europe-to-East-Africa corridors have flown longer routes around the conflict zone. Every long-haul departure now carries additional fuel to cover the detour, adding structural cost to every flight," the report said.
According to the study, fuel cost penalty within the i6 network stands at about $131 million per month and the figure is expected to exceed $8.4 billion when scaled industry-wide during the four-month summer when flight frequencies and load factors are at their peak.
Meanwhile, fuel inventories at European airports have also seen a sharp rise, with average book stock in 61 airports recording a 62.2% jump in April this year, compared with the corresponding period last year. The existing supply has exceeded demand by 17%, versus 6% from the year-ago period.
"The buildup reflects a defensive hedge against further disruption to Strait of Hormuz supply chains. Operators are delivering more fuel than airlines are consuming in preparation for a potential significant supply disruption beginning in a few weeks," the report said.