-- 加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)表示,美元/加元短期内可能维持区间震荡,因为本周的数据和地缘政治发展不足以打破该货币对近期的区间波动。 RBC指出,本周美元/加元走势基本持平,因为本周的数据(加拿大消费者物价指数、加拿大央行商业展望调查、美国零售销售)以及一系列与伊朗相关的消息都未能打破该货币对近期的区间震荡。 RBC加元每周简报指出,若美元/加元跌破1.3500区域,则需要满足以下两个条件之一:1)美加利率差收窄速度快于预期,从而降低美元对冲成本;2)市场对美国资产的风险溢价上升。 RBC补充道,在过去一年的大部分时间里,美元/加元与美国股市保持“风险中性”关系,但目前该货币对正重新建立起与美国股市的负相关性。这意味着美元/加元在避险情绪下再次扮演了天然对冲工具的角色——这种趋势能否持续,对冲动机至关重要。 从技术角度来看,加拿大皇家银行(RBC)的乔治·戴维斯(George Davis)表示,本周关键趋势线支撑位1.3647守住了阵地,日线指标已进入超卖区域。 RBC指出,如果日线收盘价跌破1.3647,则将结束自1月下旬以来的调整阶段,并有利于重新测试年内低点1.3526和1.3482。 RBC补充道,预计1.3799和1.3856的阻力位将吸引抛售。
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