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OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Lifts 2027 Outlook

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OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Lifts 2027 Outlook

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday reduced its global oil demand growth outlook for 2026, but upgraded its projection for next year.

The cartel now expects oil consumption to rise by 1.17 million barrels a day this year, down from its April estimate of an increase of 1.38 million barrels.

The latest outlook reflects upward revisions in the first quarter for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Americas, China and other Asia, offset by downward revisions to the ongoing quarter, as well as to the third and fourth quarters for both the OECD and non-OECD. Still, OPEC described the projected growth for the entire year as "healthy."

For 2027, the cartel now expects world oil demand to rise by 1.54 million barrels a day, compared with its last month's forecast of an increase of 1.34 million barrels.

"The global economic growth in (the second quarter of 2026) is expected to slightly moderate, but to gain traction again in (the second half of the year), particularly towards the end of the year," OPEC said in its latest monthly report. "Geopolitical developments, with a focus on the Middle East situation, as well as global trade, will be key aspects to monitor in the coming weeks."

In a separate Wednesday report, the International Energy Agency forecast a sharper decline in global oil demand this year than previously expected as the Middle East conflict drives up energy prices.

Brent crude was down 1.6% at $106.06 a barrel intraday, while West Texas Intermediate fell 0.7% to $101.48.

US President Donald Trump reportedly arrived in Beijing Wednesday for a high-stakes state visit. He will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to discuss various issues. Trump recently rejected Iran's counteroffer to end the war.

OPEC maintained its forecast of an increase in liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation, or DoC, by 630,000 barrels a day this year. The DoC is the name for OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and non-OPEC allies. Liquid production includes crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids.

Late last month, the United Arab Emirates announced that it was leaving OPEC after being a member of the cartel for more than five decades.

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