Consumer confidence in New Zealand fell to its lowest read in roughly three years in April, as a looming oil shock raised concerns about the broader economic outlook and downside risk for retailers, ANZ Research said Friday.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index declined 11 points to 80.3 in April from 91.3 in March. The index has also dropped 20 points over the past two months since the Middle East conflict began and pushed up global fuel prices.
Expectations for inflation rose by about another full percentage point to 6.6%. The net proportion of households considering it "a good time to buy a major household item" slid 11 points to negative 25, the lowest since September 2024.
The firm said it is too soon for the oil shock to have had a meaningful impact on household incomes, and that the decline instead reflects rising cost of living, with a growing wariness among retailers about the future activity levels.
However, consumer confidence, now at levels seen in 2022 and 2023, is "clearly hurting" as higher petrol prices dent weekly budgets.
While consumer inflation expectations are not the central bank's main focus, as they don't directly influence price setting, the gap between consumer inflation expectations of 6.6% and firms' wage expectations of 2.5% is widening, it added.