-- According to National Bank of Canada's preliminary estimate based on Centris data, seasonally adjusted home sales in Montreal fell by 9.0% from March to April, marking the sharpest decline since October 2023, when buyers were bracing for potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
Despite this decline, the Montreal market continues to compare favorably with other major Canadian cities, thanks in particular to its better affordability conditions; transaction levels in Montreal in April were at their historical average, while they were 26.5% below average in Toronto and 31.5% below in Vancouver.
Although the sluggishness of the Quebec economy and the persistent commercial and geopolitical uncertainty in the background could explain part of the slowdown observed in April, the bank believes that the lingering winter conditions in April may have played a role.
Indeed, to support this hypothesis, National Bank notes the decline across all property segments and the decreases recorded in most of the province's major cities. Upcoming data for May could confirm the validity of this theory.
However, the bad weather doesn't seem to have dampened sellers' enthusiasm, as the bank estimates that new listings increased by 4.2% between March and April. Combined with the decline in sales, this resulted in a 3.9% increase in active listings, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise.
Overall, market conditions, as measured by the ratio of active listings to sales, eased considerably during the month and moved into balanced territory.
However, this situation could be temporary if transactions rebound in May, which could tighten market conditions, it added.