-- Microsoft's (MSFT) aggressive capital expenditure plans to take advantage of the strong demand for artificial intelligence will likely keep free cash flow under pressure in the near term, Truist Securities said in a note.
The tech giant is looking to invest about $190 billion in capex in 2026, including $25 billion from the impact of higher component pricing, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said on an earnings conference call late Wednesday. The company is confident about the return on its planned investments amid "higher demand signals" and growing product usage, Hood said.
"Capex remains a central focus, with Microsoft continuing to invest aggressively to meet AI-driven demand," Truist Managing Director Terry Tillman said in a note to clients. "The capex story is less about overspending and more about pulling forward investment to support structurally durable demand, although free cash flow will likely remain under pressure in the near term as this buildout continues."
The brokerage lowered its price target on the Microsoft stock to $575 from $675 and maintained its buy rating.
"While we believe Microsoft's fundamentals continue to improve, we believe the stock is unlikely to fully escape broader valuation pressure, and therefore reflect a more balanced risk/reward at current levels," Tillman said.
The company's shares were down 3.7% in Thursday late-afternoon trade. The stock has lost roughly 16% in value so far in 2026.
"Even with these additional investments and continued efforts to bring (graphics processing unit), (central processing unit), and storage capacity online faster, we expect to remain constrained at least through 2026," Hood told analysts. "Despite these constraints, and the continued need to balance incoming supply, we expect Azure growth to show modest acceleration in the second half of the calendar year, compared with the first half."
Microsoft's fiscal third-quarter results topped Wall Street's views. The results surpassed expectations across revenue, operating income, and per-share earnings, reflecting "strong execution" and rising demand for the Microsoft Cloud, Hood said in a statement late Wednesday. Azure is the company's cloud-computing platform.
For the ongoing quarter, Microsoft expects revenue of $86.7 billion to $87.8 billion, implying annual growth of 13% to 15%.
Late Wednesday, Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms (META) raised its full-year capex guidance to between $125 billion and $145 billion from its previous outlook range of $115 billion to $135 billion mainly due to higher component pricing.
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