So far on Thursday, markets have thin gruel to trade on by way of anything substantive out of the United States-China talks during President Donald Trump's visit to China, said Scotiabank.
That may change on the path to the second meeting between President Xi Jinping and Trump later on Thursday, following the day's earlier state banquet, noted the bank.
Yet so far, it's almost as if the U.S. side is pumping up simply worded positive rhetoric while China generally resists and warns the U.S. about Taiwan. The impression of Scotiabank's economist is that the optics are more about China asserting control.
Expectations were pretty low going into the trip, as Trump is the eleventh foreign leader to travel to China this year while Xi stays home. China's power and stature are rising on the world stage, pointed out the bank.
The timing of any statement and other announcements is uncertain. All markets have to go by is talk -- no announcements -- on potential around a 'Board of Investment' and a 'Board of Trade' that could open up more room for China to invest and trade with the U.S., while Xi loosely pledged to open up China a little more to U.S. businesses, added Scotiabank.
There is also general talk of China buying more U.S. agricultural products and planes and the U.S. seeking to sell more oil to China, in which case it should get in line. These sound like small one-offs against any grand bargain that wasn't expected in any event, according to the bank.
What markets would be interested in seeing would be any substantive progress toward meaningfully reducing tariffs, said Scotiabank. Advance rumors suggested reducing tariffs on about 10% of U.S. imports from China, but the details are unknown.
As such, markets are generally little changed early Thursday. Stocks have a small positive bias. So do bond prices. Oil is little changed, just like major currencies.