US retail sales are expected to rise by 1.4% in March, well above a 0.6% gain in the previous month, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg, with a surge in gasoline prices due to the conflict in Iran the key factor.
Industry motor vehicle sales volumes increased in March, and prices of new vehicles posted a modest 0.1% gain but used vehicles prices fell by 0.4% in the monthly consumer price report, resulting in expectations for no change in the motor vehicle and parts category in this week's report.
The data are scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET Tuesday.
Sales outside of motor vehicles are also expected to rise by 1.4% after a 0.5% gain in February, with gasoline station sales forecast to surge further after a 0.9% rise in February. Gasoline prices jumped by 21.2% in March after a 0.8% gain in the previous month.
However, sales excluding both vehicle sales and gasoline are expected to increase by only 0.2%, slower than a 0.4% gain in February, an indication of underlying softness in sales activity.
Excluding the motor vehicle, building materials, gasoline station and food services categories, the so-called "control group" is also forecast to increase by 0.2% after a 0.4% gain in February.