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March Job Openings Fall, Hiring Rises; Oxford Economics Says Data Point to 'Stable' Labor Market

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-- US job openings fell slightly in March, while hiring rose, according to latest official data, which Oxford Economics said indicates the labor market continued to be "stable" at the start of the year.

Vacancies decreased to 6.87 million in March from 6.92 million the month prior, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consensus was for a 6.85 million level in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

Private job openings dropped to 6.14 million from 6.2 million sequentially in March. Vacancies tumbled by 318,000 in professional and business services, and by 41,000 in other services, according to the report.

"It's too soon to see the negative spillover effects from the US/Israel war with Iran, but the March JOLTS report suggested the labor market remained stable at the start of the year," Oxford Economics Senior US Economist Matthew Martin said in remarks e-mailed to.

Hiring increased to 5.55 million in March from 4.9 million the month before, while the hiring rate rose to 3.5% from 3.1%, official data showed. Separations jumped to 5.38 million from 5.02 million, while layoffs rose to 1.87 million from 1.71 million.

The Iran war, which started at the end of February, sent energy prices soaring amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly said Tuesday a recent ceasefire agreement with Iran remains intact.

Elevated oil prices threaten to lower aggregate demand by "crimping" real incomes, likely prompting businesses to pull back on hiring intentions, Martin said. "Still, the tenuous ceasefire likely limits the worst-case scenarios to the outcome of the war."

"For the Federal Reserve, this will mean a balancing act between the risks of a supply-side shock to energy prices bleeding into core measures of inflation and the downside risks to the labor market," Martin wrote, adding that Oxford doesn't expect the central bank to deliver another interest rate cut until December.

Official data are expected to show Friday that the US economy added 73,000 nonfarm jobs in April, compared with a 178,000 increase reported for the previous month, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus.

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