North American natural gas markets face a complex summer as limited production growth meets a massive expansion in export capacity, Wood Mackenzie said in a note on Tuesday.
Lower 48 production will see only slight growth this summer, stifled by pipeline capacity issues in the Northeast and Permian Basin, it said.
Wood Mackenzie analysts noted that while pipeline bottlenecks persist, the combination of new liquefied natural gas terminals and global supply disruptions is creating a structural floor for prices.
Analysts expect a production rebound only toward the end of 2026 as infrastructure constraints are alleviated.
The export landscape is shifting with two major projects adding significant capacity.
Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi Train 6 is expected to be fully operational by May, followed by Train 7 in late summer.
Simultaneously, Golden Pass LNG is slated to ramp up Train 1 to 800 million cubic feet per day by June.
This surge in feed gas demand marks a departure from typical summer patterns where LNG events are traditionally viewed as bearish due to hurricane risks, it noted.
In the US, residential electricity consumption remains a primary demand driver, fuelled by larger home footprints and the essential role of gas in grid stabilization.
Mexico is seeing structural growth in the power sector. The startup of the Energia Costa Azul project is expected to trigger a "step change" in feed gas demand, though WoodMac noted risks including potential project delays and higher-than-average summer rainfall.
Meanwhile, geopolitical instability is significantly reshaping the market.
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has caused long-term damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan export hub, which may take five years to fully restore.
This massive loss of global supply has created an "energy security premium" for US LNG, Wood Mackenzie said.
Wood Mackenzie suggested this makes the US a more attractive hub for energy-intensive industries, further insulating domestic projects from price-related risks.