Confidence among Japanese manufacturers fell at its steepest monthly rate in over three years in April, driven by rising oil prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, according to the latest Reuters Tankan poll.
The survey, conducted from April 1 to 10 and serving as a precursor to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan index, showed a drop of 11 points to plus 7, the first downturn in three months and the largest fall since January 2023, the report said.
With Japan relying on the Middle East for roughly 95% of its oil, firms are highly vulnerable to any supply shocks; the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked energy shipments and undone recent optimism fueled by chip-led demand, according to the report.
The materials sector was hardest hit: chemicals industry sentiment plunged from plus 21 in March to minus 8 in April, with managers citing rising raw material costs, unstable procurement, and limited supply of inputs constraining shipments, the report said.
In contrast, transport machinery (including autos) saw a milder pullback, dropping from plus 36 to plus 20, while non-manufacturers' confidence actually improved to plus 31 from plus 25, supported by steady demand in construction, real estate, and information services, Reuters wrote.
Looking ahead, manufacturers expect sentiment to worsen further to plus 2 by July, and non-manufacturers also see a cooling to plus 14; one machinery maker warned that a prolonged Iran conflict would likely cause clients to delay investment, according to the report.