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Research
Research Alert: Hog: Eps A Penny Short Of Consensus; Prior 2026 Guidance Maintained
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Harley-Davidson (HOG) posted Q1 EPS of $0.22 vs. $1.07 (-79%), a penny short of consensus. The miss was due to weaker-than-expected margins, as motorcycle revenue fell 2% to $1.06B ($60M ahead of consensus), led by a 3% drop in motorcycle shipments. The core Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) segment, representing the company's traditional motorcycle business, experienced a dramatic 84% decline in operating income to $19M despite revenue being down only 2%. This operating leverage deterioration was led by gross margin compression of 390 bps to 25.3%. The company maintained prior 2026 guidance, which suggests no further deterioration is anticipated from the current levels. HOG shares are trading 1% higher in early trading on Tuesday. We think some investors were hopeful that HOG might be turning a corner, but it is clear the company has more challenges ahead, as it continues its long-term struggle against the global secular decline in motorcycle demand.
$HOG
International
ISM US April Services Index Posts Larger-Than-Expected Decrease
The Institute for Supply Management's US services index declined to a reading of 53.6 in April from 54.0 in March, compared with expectations for a smaller decrease to a reading of 53.7 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.There were mixed readings for other regional Federal Reserve bank measures already released while the S&P Global measure indicated expansion.There were increases in the readings for production and employment, but new orders and inventories declined. The prices paid reading held steady.The monthly national services reading from the Institute for Supply Management is reported as a headline index, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and those below 50 indicating contraction. Component indexes measure new orders, production, employment, and prices.An increase in the index further above 50 is considered a sign of a strong US services sector and would be a positive for service-sector stocks. Rising prices would normally be a negative for both stocks and bonds.
Commodities
US Natural Gas Update: Futures Down Amid Easing Domestic Demand, Milder Temperatures
US natural gas futures were down on Tuesday after four straight days of gains, amid forecasts of further declines in domestic demand and milder near-term temperatures.Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract were down 0.98% to $2.83 per million British thermal units.Total natural gas demand is expected to fall by 4.0 billion cubic feet on Tuesday, to 95.4 Bcf per day, according to NRG Energy, which attributed the decline to milder weather and colder-than-average temperatures, leading to lower residential and commercial demand.LNG export feedgas is also expected to decline to 17.3 Bcf per day, significantly below the 30-day moving average of 19.38 Bcf.The Energy Buyer's Guide echoed similar views, noting that cooler-than-normal temperatures will persist throughout the eastern two-thirds of the country over the next two weeks, while the west is expected to be warmer-than-normal, both of which, it said, will lead to subdued natural gas demand in the near-term.