South America could unleash over 2 million barrels per day of new crude supply by the mid-2030s if prices hold near $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy strategists said in a note Monday, citing offshore developments in Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and a potential rebound in Venezuela.
Rystad analysts said that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an upward revision of its 2026 Brent forecast to $89/bbl, up from $60/bbl in January, boosting government revenues across South America by an estimated $43 billion in 2026.
Brazil's Petrobras (PBR) is set to benefit most, with revenues projected to rise to $13.1 billion under the new price outlook.
"South America is now positioned as the world's most consequential source of incremental supply," Radhika Bansal, senior vice president for oil and gas research at Rystad, said, adding that the region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability.
Fast tracked offshore projects in Brazil, Guyana and Suriname could add over 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day over the next decade, supported by about $33 billion in additional greenfield investment through 2035.
ExxonMobil's (XOM) Yellowtail development in Guyana, which started up at 250,000 b/d, is targeting 300,000 b/d. Rystad said similar debottlenecking could unlock 80,000-90,000 b/d across the Errea Wittu, Jaguar and Hammerhead fields.
The largest upside, however, lies in accelerating final investment decisions on new projects. Limited global shipyard capacity for new floating production, storage, and offloading vessels remains the main bottleneck.
Meanwhile, Venezuela could add 910,000 b/d by 2035 under a $100 oil scenario, Rystad said, with 57% of the increase coming from existing fields in the East and West.
The consultancy said global oil firms are cautiously returning. ExxonMobil, whose CEO labeled Venezuela "uninvestable" in January, has since dispatched technical teams to evaluate opportunities.
Shell also signed preliminary agreements with Venezuelan state-owned energy firm PDVSA in March covering offshore gas and onshore exploration.
Rystad said upside could grow if more companies follow Chevron (CVX), Eni (E), Repsol and Shell (SHEL) in partnering with PDVSA to revive underdeveloped fields.
Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation is also expected to drive long-term growth, with production forecast to rise from about 600,000 b/d currently to 1 million b/d by the end of the decade, and potentially 1.8 million b/d by 2035.
Export growth would be constrained by the capacity of the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline, which Rystad identified as a potential bottleneck.
Rystad analysts said the pace of South American supply growth will depend less on resource availability and more on execution capacity, infrastructure constraints and regulatory frameworks.
"Countries that provide clear fiscal and regulatory frameworks are better positioned to accelerate project sanctions and capture the upside from higher prices," Bansal said.