-- The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to maintain the target range for its federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% at its meeting this week, putting the focus on post-meeting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Powell is due to leave his post before the next FOMC meeting in June but has said he will remain until his named replacement, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed.
The CME's Fed Watch Tool currently shows a 100% chance being priced in for no change to the current target range.
The FOMC's statement following Wednesday's meeting is due for release at 2:00 pm ET, with Fed Chair Powell's press conference scheduled to begin at 2:30 pm ET.
There will not be an update to the Summary of Economic Projections at this week's meeting.
Continued debate remains between FOMC members, with some, particularly Fed Governor Stephen Miran, suggesting that the inflation impact of the conflict in Iran is temporary and should be ignored, while others have been more cautious that the effects could be widespread and longer-lasting.
Powell said on March 30 that inflation expectations remain well anchored after an expected short-term price shock from the conflict in Iran and that the FOMC has time to see if that is the case before incorporating it into policy making.
Since then, the consumer price index jumped by 0.9% for the March reading, lifted by a 21.2% jump in gasoline prices and retail sales proved to be resilient in March even outside of gains in both vehicle sales and gasoline station sales.
At the same time, nonfarm payrolls rebounded in March from a February decline and the unemployment rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4% in the previous month.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, both voters on the FOMC this year, said in early-April that the conflict in Iran adds uncertainty to the outlook. Hammack added that the FOMC should hold rates steady for a time and that the next rate move could be a rate increase if inflation moves higher.
Later in the month, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on April 17 that he would be willing to look through the most recent energy price spike if he knew that prices would soon unwind, but said that the FOMC is likely to stay on hold for longer if it appears that the conflict in Iran is having a deeper impact on inflation in other categories outside of energy.
Warsh's confirmation hearing on April 21 raised concerns from US senators that he will not be able to avoid political bias when making policy decisions, but Warsh said that he made no deal with US President Donald Trump to earn the nomination as Fed chair and will not be Trump's "sock puppet" as was suggested by Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren.