Exxon Mobil Keeps $20 Billion Buyback Target on Track After Strong Q1 Earnings, TPH Energy Says

-- Exxon Mobil (XOM) reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2026 earnings, driven by better-than-expected downstream performance, TPH Energy Research analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon said in a Friday note.

The company reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.16, beating the $0.93 TPH estimate and the $0.98 Street estimate, TPH said.

The company generated cash flow before working capital of $10.46 billion, slightly below the $10.86 billion TPH estimate and the $10.70 billion consensus.

Lower capital spending of $6.19 billion, compared with the $6.61 billion TPH estimate and the $6.71 billion consensus, supported stronger free cash flow conversion.

Exxon produced about $4.46 billion in free cash flow pre-working capital, which funded total shareholder returns of roughly $9.2 billion.

The company returned about $4.9 billion through share buybacks and $4.3 billion in dividends, keeping it on track for $20 billion in full-year 2026 buybacks.

Downstream results significantly outperformed expectations, with combined earnings of about $0.09 billion, versus TPH losses of $0.99 billion and a consensus of $1.17 billion.

Energy products reported a narrower loss of $0.56 billion, outperforming the TPH estimate which expected $1.39 billion loss and Street expectations for a $1.61 billion loss.

Specialty products delivered $0.65 billion in earnings, beating the $0.40 billion TPH estimate and the $0.43 billion Street estimate, the note added.

Upstream earnings came in at $5.74 billion, below the $5.82 billion TPH estimate and below the $6.10 billion Street estimate.

Production averaged about 4.59 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, below the 4.68 million boe/d TPH estimate and below the 4.63 million boe/d Street estimate.

Operational updates include Golden Pass LNG targeting first production in late March and first cargo in April, the note added.

Exxon highlighted Permian output near 1.7 million b/d through 2026, in line with 1.69 b/d million estimates, while Guyana production exceeded 0.9 million b/d and carbon capture capacity reached 10 million tons annually, TPH said.

Price: $152.54, Change: $-1.80, Percent Change: -1.16%

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slip as Iran Sends Fresh Proposal to Washington

European natural gas futures traded lower after-hours on Friday after Iranian state media reported that Tehran had sent another proposal for negotiations with the US via Pakistani diplomatic channels, a development seen as potentially paving the way for renewed transit through the Strait of Hormuz.The front-month Dutch TTF contract fell 1.211% to 45.43 euros ($53.36) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP contract slipped 1.533% to 111.15 British pence ($1.51) per therm.US President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House on Friday, said, "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it," CNBC reported.Market participants continue to weigh geopolitical risk against relatively stable European supply conditions and weaker demand elsewhere. In a Thursday note, S&P Global analysts said Europe has benefited from "significant demand destruction elsewhere," noting that although the war has effectively removed about 20% of global LNG supply, European imports have remained broadly steady.The note said Asia has absorbed much of the demand adjustment. It said China recorded a 19% year-on-year drop in LNG imports in March, according to government data.Benchmark LNG prices remain elevated, but off recent highs, they said. The JKM benchmark for Northeast Asia put prices at $18.309/MMBtu on April 30, up 8.3% on the day. The DES Northwest Europe LNG marker was assessed at $15.719 per MMBtu on Apr. 29, up 7.9% day-on-day.The analysts said both benchmarks remain above pre-conflict levels but have retreated from peaks seen in the early weeks of the disruption.European storage levels remain below last year's levels. Gas Infrastructure Europe reported inventories at 32.49% as of Friday, compared with 39.22% a year earlier.CERA analysts project EU storage could reach about 80% by the end of October under a base-case scenario, assuming a resumption of steady Hormuz transit by Jun. 1.EU LNG imports rose slightly year over year in March, supported by cargoes already en route when the conflict began in late February, according to CERA data. However, that buffer has since faded, with April imports down roughly 6.9% from 2025 levels.Looking ahead, Severe Weather Europe said Friday it is monitoring the potential development of a "super El Nino" pattern. One scenario that could develop would be an increase in the risk of dry conditions and drought across Central Europe this summer.

Nebius to Acquire Eigen AI in $643 Million Cash-And-Stock Deal

Nebius Group (NBIS) said Friday it has agreed to acquire inference and model optimization firm, Eigen AI, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $643 million.The acquisition will strengthen Nebius Token Factory as a frontier managed inference platform for production AI, the company said, adding that the deal also accelerates its expansion in the US.The transaction is expected to close in the coming weeks, it said.Nebius shares were up over 10% in afternoon trading.Price: $152.93, Change: $+14.70, Percent Change: +10.63%

$NBIS

Exxon Mobil Keeps $20 Billion Buyback Target on Track After Strong Q1 Earnings, TPH Energy Says

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