Europe is increasing its reliance on US supplies of liquefied natural gas and will meet two-thirds of its needs with natural gas of that origin, according to research by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis on Wednesday.
The report warned, however, that with efforts to increase domestic energy supplies within the bloc and steady progress on renewables deployment, the EU could end up with LNG import facilities far in excess of its future needs.
Europe's imports of LNG from the US tripled in the 2021 to 2025 period as the continent sought to turn away from Russian pipeline gas.
With more disruption from the Iran war and the weeks-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, IEEFA predicts that the US will surpass Norway and become the largest single supplier of gas to the EU at some point this year.
IEEFA further suggests the US could account for 80% of EU LNG imports by 2028.
"Europe's shift from pipeline gas to LNG was meant to provide security of supply and diversification. Yet disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and an overreliance on US LNG show that Europe's plan has failed on both counts," said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe, at IEEFA.
"LNG has become the Achilles' heel of Europe's energy security strategy, leaving the continent exposed to high gas prices and to new forms of supply disruption."
Repeated energy disruption has prompted EU policymakers to give a higher priority to energy security and to seek to produce more energy domestically - which entails more renewables and more electrification of the economy.
So while Europe could source more of its gas from the US going forward, IEEFA says its possible that the continent's gas consumption could fall this year and by a cumulative 14% between now and 2030.
That would have a disproportionately large effect on LNG import needs, reducing demand by an estimated 23%, it said.
European countries are still planning to build more LNG terminals nonetheless, even with the risk they could end up under-used.
IEEFA estimates it is possible that Europe's 2030 LNG import capacity could grow to as much as three times the volume of LNG demand.
"Europe may have no control over LNG supply disruptions, but it can boost energy efficiency and accelerate renewables and heat pump installations to reduce its import dependency," said Jaller-Makarewicz.
Despite an upcoming end to the EU's purchases of Russian gas, it remains the second largest LNG supplier to the block and the decline in imports was turned around in Q1 when Russia sent 16% more LNG than in Q1 of 2025. LNG imports to Europe actually set a record in Q1, 2026, IEEFA said.
EU countries bought 5.9 billion ($6.91 billion euros) of Russian pipeline gas and 6.7 billion of LNG in 2025, the research said.