Airline ticket prices are rising sharply amid the Middle East crisis, with analysis pointing to fossil fuel reliance as the core driver behind the surge, the European Federation for Transport and Environment said Tuesday.
The analysis said Europe's aviation sector remains highly exposed to oil market shocks, arguing its dependence on fossil fuels, and not climate regulation, is the main structural weakness.
The analysis added that some industry stakeholders are using geopolitical instability to challenge policies such as the Emissions Trading System and ReFuelEU, despite their role in strengthening energy security.
Weakening these climate frameworks would deepen vulnerability to global oil price swings rather than reduce exposure, the analysis warned.
The Middle East conflict has disrupted energy markets broadly, but aviation has been particularly affected due to its reliance on oil and jet fuel tied to the region.
The European Union imports about 95% of its crude oil, covering nearly all feedstock used in jet fuel production across the bloc, according to the analysis.
Roughly one-third of Europe's jet fuel demand is met through direct imports of refined fuel, with the Middle East as the primary supplier.
Overall, about 30% of the European Union's jet fuel supply depends on imports routed via the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting a significant geopolitical risk, the analysis added.
Airlines have been forced to reroute flights away from unstable airspace, while several regional carriers in the Middle East have been grounded amid the conflict.
The disruption has also caused jet fuel shortages, leading to flight cancellations and rising fuel costs, while sustainable aviation fuel prices have increased despite stable feedstock costs such as used cooking oil.
The analysis found that compliance costs tied to emissions policies are minimal compared with the volatility in fossil fuel prices, countering industry claims about regulation.
Short-term jet fuel shortages should be managed without undermining long-term climate objectives, urging policymakers to use the crisis to strengthen Europe's energy independence.
The analysis called on the European Union to safeguard the Emissions Trading System and reinvest revenues into aviation, particularly to scale up sustainable aviation fuel and support innovation through funding programs.
The analysis also recommended demand-side measures to curb unnecessary flight growth, thereby reducing reliance on volatile oil imports while improving energy security in the near term.
It added that reinforcing sustainable aviation fuel mandates, including ReFuelEU and the United Kingdom's SAF mandate, is critical to building domestic supply and ensuring long-term resilience against geopolitical disruptions.