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Enverus Intelligence Research Reaffirms Higher-for-Longer Oil Price Outlook Through 2027

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Enverus Intelligence Research reaffirmed its higher-for-longer oil price outlook, maintaining forecasts for Brent crude to average $95 per barrel for the remainder of 2026, the firm said in a Tuesday statement.

Enverus maintained $100/bbl through 2027 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to disrupt global supply flows.

The research firm said market pricing and peer forecasts are increasingly converging with its projections, which it first outlined on March 11.

The outlook is anchored by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint, and by declining crude and refined product inventories in advanced countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

EIR said its base-case scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three months. The firm added that each additional month of disruption could increase its oil price outlook by another $10 to $15 per barrel.

The report also cited constrained global spare production capacity and a muted US shale supply response as structural factors likely to sustain elevated geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.

"Since March 11, our view has been that oil prices would remain higher for longer, and we have not deviated from that position as events have unfolded," Al Salazar, director of research at EIR said.

"However, our three-month base case closure presumption is about to come due, and the lack of resolution introduces additional uncertainty around the path forward," Salazar said.

EIR said prolonged disruption in the Middle East could further tighten global crude supplies, particularly as inventories remain below historical norms.

EIR said the combination of supply constraints, geopolitical instability and limited production flexibility among major producers continues to support a structurally higher oil price environment into 2027.

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