-- European natural gas futures were little changed in after-hours trade on Friday after a choppy session driven by geopolitical developments and shifting expectations around renewed Iran-related peace talks scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad.
Front-month Dutch TTF gas contracts edged up 0.009% to 44.40 euros ($52.02) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP benchmark rose 0.46% to 111.40 pence ($1.51) per therm.
Markets moved back and forth through the day as reports circulated that US President Donald Trump is sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Pakistan for discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The talks are expected to take place this weekend.
US Vice President JD Vance will not attend, as the perceived counterparty, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, is also reported not to be participating.
Trump declined on Thursday to offer a timeline for resolving the conflict with Iran, telling reporters, "Don't rush me." The two sides remain divided on key issues presumably to be central to the Islamabad discussions.
The US Navy began a blockade of Iranian ports on Apr. 13 after the collapse of the first round of talks in Islamabad. Trump reiterated on Thursday that the US has "total control over the Strait of Hormuz." However, a Financial Times report, citing Vortexa data, indicated continued vessel movements in and out of the Gulf during the blockade, including ships linked to Iranian crude exports totaling roughly 10.7 million barrels.
In Europe, weather models continue to show mixed signals for late April and early May. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said in a social media post Friday that a general warming trend is expected, but noted the possibility of colder air reaching Western Europe between Apr. 28 and May 11. Some models also indicate a potential shift toward warmer conditions from the west, which could affect central and western regions. Overall confidence in the forecast remains low.
Gas market fundamentals are also being shaped by ongoing storage replenishment ahead of the next winter season. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows EU gas storage levels at 30.82% capacity, below the year-ago level of 37.54%.