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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Surge on Gulf Military Escalation, Supply Fears

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European natural gas futures soared nearly 7% in after-hours trade on Monday as renewed conflict in the Iran region disrupted sentiment across energy markets, with strikes on a key UAE oil port and multiple vessels again raising concerns over supply.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 6.935% to 48.94 euros ($57.20) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP trading was closed due to the Early May Bank Holiday.

Geopolitical risk escalated after Iran warned it could target US warships and commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without its approval. The warning followed an uptick in military activity in the Persian Gulf.

US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that Washington would facilitate safe passage for vessels through the strait under a new protection arrangement, though he provided few operational details. On Monday, US Central Command said two US-flagged ships had crossed the waterway without incident.

Separately, the UAE said it activated air-raid alerts for the first time since early April after reporting an attack involving four missiles and multiple drones. Authorities confirmed a drone strike triggered a fire at the Fujairah oil hub, a critical export facility used to bypass Iranian influence near the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation in Gulf tensions added to upward pressure on European gas markets, amid heightened supply risks alongside already tight fundamentals.

Pipeline imports from Norway remain reduced amid seasonal maintenance running from April through September, while storage levels across Europe continue to lag last year. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows EU gas inventories at 33.42% of capacity, compared with 40.29% a year earlier, as markets move into the replenishment period ahead of winter demand.

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US Natural Gas Prices Continue Weekly Decline on Lower Demand, Inventory Build

US natural gas markets eased over the week, as softer demand and rising stockpiles offset weather-driven volatility and a bullish storage report.The front-month June contract price fell over the week to $2.789 per million British thermal units, from $2.861/MMBtu on April 24.For the week ended April 29, the May 2026 Nymex contract was down $0.05 at $2.559/MMBtu, compared with $2.61/MMBtu the prior week, the Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement said.Natural gas spot prices fell by $0.16/MMBtu to $2.60/MMBtu during the week ended April 29, according to the EIA, from $2.76/MMBtu last week.This was attributed to a 2% decline, or 1.2 billion cubic feet per day, in total US natural gas demand compared with the prior week, with a 12% decline in residential and commercial demand during the period.The EIA noted that the Henry Hub price remained the highest recorded price across all major pricing hubs in the US during the week.The net injection into storage for the week ended April 24 was 79 Bcf, down from 103 Bcf the prior week, bringing total gas inventories to 2,142 Bcf, according to EIA data.During the same week last year, the EIA reported a net injection of 105 Bcf, with the five-year average for this period at 63 Bcf. This week's figures were below forecasts at 83 Bcf, prompting a rally in markets, according to data compiled by Investing.com.Total gas inventories at 2,142 Bcf are now 116 Bcf, or 6%, above the corresponding period a year ago, and 153 Bcf, or 8%, higher than the five-year average for this period.All regions reported a net injection of working gas during the week ended April 24, with South Central reporting the highest at 26 Bcf, bringing its total inventories to 905 Bcf. Balances at South Central are now 18 Bcf above the five-year average.Weather forecasts have remained bullish in recent weeks, with eastern parts of the US expected to see below-normal temperatures from May 08 to May 17, according to the National Weather Service.However, analysts at Pinebrook Energy Advisors believe this cold pattern over the coming weeks "will have less of an impact on natural gas demand for heating" as normal temperatures begin to climb as the calendar progresses through the new month.A total of 35 liquefied natural gas-carrying vessels left US ports during the week, the same as the previous week, with a total capacity of 133 Bcf, down by 1 Bcf compared to the prior week.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count increased by one from 129 the previous week to 130 in the week ending May 1, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 108 gas rigs in operation in the US a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, dropped by four to 670 from 674 the previous week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $15.41/MMBtu for the week ended April 29, $1.14/MMBtu higher than the previous week.The Japan-Korea Marker averaged $16.59/MMBtu, about $0.93/MMBtu higher than the prior week.

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Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Edge Up on Cooler Forecast Despite Oversupply

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Commodities

Scout Energy Completes $1 Billion Asset Sale in Anadarko Basin

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