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FINWIRES

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Surge on Gulf Military Escalation, Supply Fears

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-- European natural gas futures soared nearly 7% in after-hours trade on Monday as renewed conflict in the Iran region disrupted sentiment across energy markets, with strikes on a key UAE oil port and multiple vessels again raising concerns over supply.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 6.935% to 48.94 euros ($57.20) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP trading was closed due to the Early May Bank Holiday.

Geopolitical risk escalated after Iran warned it could target US warships and commercial vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz without its approval. The warning followed an uptick in military activity in the Persian Gulf.

US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that Washington would facilitate safe passage for vessels through the strait under a new protection arrangement, though he provided few operational details. On Monday, US Central Command said two US-flagged ships had crossed the waterway without incident.

Separately, the UAE said it activated air-raid alerts for the first time since early April after reporting an attack involving four missiles and multiple drones. Authorities confirmed a drone strike triggered a fire at the Fujairah oil hub, a critical export facility used to bypass Iranian influence near the Strait of Hormuz.

The escalation in Gulf tensions added to upward pressure on European gas markets, amid heightened supply risks alongside already tight fundamentals.

Pipeline imports from Norway remain reduced amid seasonal maintenance running from April through September, while storage levels across Europe continue to lag last year. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows EU gas inventories at 33.42% of capacity, compared with 40.29% a year earlier, as markets move into the replenishment period ahead of winter demand.

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