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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Strait of Hormuz Risk, Supply Concerns

-- European natural gas futures edged higher on Thursday, trimming earlier gains in after-hours trading but still closing the session in positive territory as geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to underpin sentiment.

Front-month Dutch TTF contracts rose 2.29% to 44.55 euros ($52.14) per megawatt hour, while UK NBP futures advanced 2.31% to 110.94 British pence ($1.50) per therm.

Earlier in the session, the front-month Dutch TTP price had briefly climbed toward 45.85 euros/MWh before easing, though it extended a four-session winning streak, according to Trading Economics.

The market was underpinned by heightened concerns over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, after US President Donald Trump said he had ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill any boat" laying mines in the area. Trump also claimed Iranian naval assets had been sunk and that US minesweepers were operating to clear the waterway.

However, a Pentagon assessment submitted to Congress and reported by The Washington Post estimated it could take at least six months to fully clear any mines from the Strait, underscoring ongoing supply risk perceptions.

On the supply side, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed EU gas storage levels at 30.70% of capacity, compared with 37% a year earlier, as the injection season continues ahead of winter. The European Union has also said it will introduce greater flexibility in gas storage filling requirements under a proposed framework aimed at easing the impact of volatile energy prices.

Weather outlooks added further uncertainty. Atmospheric G2 noted that European forecasts remain mixed, with some models pointing to warmer conditions into early May while others continue to signal potential incursions of colder air, leaving no clear trend for sustained warmth.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Europe continues to import liquefied natural gas above seasonal norms despite recent price declines, citing ANZ Research. The firm said this has contributed to stronger buying interest in South Asia and heightened competition for cargoes.

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