European natural gas futures ended the session higher on Friday but slipped in later trade, as markets swung between geopolitical risk tied to US-Iran tensions and growing optimism that diplomacy could ease supply concerns.
The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 0.537% to 43.795 euros ($51.56) per megawatt-hour and the front-month UK NBP contract gained 0.187% to 107.07 British pence ($1.46) per therm.
Earlier in the session, TTF briefly hit 45.40 euros/MWh before softening on expectations that Tehran may respond to a US peace proposal after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington expects a response "today," according to reports.
Supply support came from Norway, where extended maintenance at the Troll field cut flows to Europe, tightening near-term availability, but Equinor also brought the Eirin field online, exporting gas via the Gina Krog and Sleipner A platforms, adding new supply.
EU gas inventories stand at 34.26% of capacity, down from 41.58% a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, leaving storage rebuilding well behind seasonal norms.
Equinor (EQNR) CFO Torgrim Reitan reportedly warned Europe is unlikely to reach its 80% storage target ahead of winter, citing weak price incentives and limited supply growth. Speaking on an analysts' call earlier this week, he said this would leave the market more exposed to weather and operational disruptions.
Weather risk is compounding the outlook. Forecasters see a 60-70% chance of El Nino this summer, raising the risk of heat and drought that could disrupt LNG logistics, including transit through the Panama Canal. With storage still low and geopolitical risks elevated, analysts warn that volatility into winter could intensify, Montel News reported.
Price: $36.86, Change: $-0.05, Percent Change: -0.15%