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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Mixed as Tight Storage Keeps Market on Edge

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European natural gas futures were flat to lower in after-hours trade on Wednesday, trimming gains from three consecutive sessions of gains as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remained unresolved.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract edged up by 0.024% to 46.695 euros ($54.70) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract declined 0.889% to 113.78 British pence ($1.54) per therm.

According to Trading Economics, European gas prices hovered near 46.6 euros/MWh after recent advances driven by concerns over prolonged supply disruption.

The firm said US President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's response to a US proposal aimed at ending the conflict has increased fears the 10-week war could persist, further threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations for a durable ceasefire have also weakened.

While most LNG exports from the Persian Gulf are typically directed toward Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply balances and intensified competition for cargoes. This has raised concerns in Europe, which is working to rebuild storage ahead of the winter season.

EU gas storage levels continue to lag year-ago levels. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed inventories at 35.57% of capacity, compared with 43.10% a year earlier.

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said Qatar has successfully routed two LNG tankers through the strait earlier this month by switching off transponders and has since instructed additional vessels near its main export facilities to do the same.

Hynes added that Bloomberg ship-tracking data indicated at least nine tankers had stopped transmitting signals as of May 11. However, buyers remain cautious over supply availability, with a growing number entering the spot market for the first time in months.

On the supply side, Norway's Hammerfest LNG export facility is currently offline following an operational issue and may require several days of repairs, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. The outage comes shortly after the operator began early production from the Eirin field intended to support Norwegian exports to Europe.

Separately, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators reported that the bloc imported a record 146 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, delivered via 1,850 cargoes, up from 112 Bcm in 2024 and 134 Bcm in 2023. The EU remains the world's largest LNG importer.

The agency also warned that a full-year closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 would materially tighten global supply, creating an estimated LNG shortfall of 27 Bcm versus 2025 and intensifying competition for spot cargoes.

It added that demand-side adjustments would likely be required under such a scenario, including reduced consumption through fuel switching, behavioral changes, administrative restrictions, or price-driven demand destruction.

However, it noted that conditions would improve if the Strait reopened mid-2026 and production from Qatar and the UAE returned to pre-disruption levels by July 1, potentially increasing global LNG supply by about 20 Bcm year on year.

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