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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Gain on US-Iran Peace Talk Break Down

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European natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trading on Monday, driven by renewed geopolitical risk after Iran's response to a US peace proposal was rejected, leaving the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed.

The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 5.521% to 46.58 euros ($54.86) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract gained 5.291% to 113.83 British pence ($1.55) per therm.

Late-session strength followed reports that US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's formal response to a one-page US peace proposal. CNBC reported Trump told reporters on Monday that the US ceasefire with Iran is "on life support" after Tehran delivered what Washington described as an "unacceptable" counterproposal to end the war.

The development followed earlier reporting that Iran had proposed transferring part of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to a third country while refusing to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, according to Trading Economics.

Market structure indicators also shifted. The Vortexa LNG Weekly said the Northwest Europe LNG-TTF spread has narrowed to its lowest level since early March, weakening LNG import economics as it no longer covers regasification and pipeline costs into the Dutch hub. The report added that the backwardated TTF curve is further discouraging storage injections.

Gas Infrastructure Europe reported EU gas storage ended last week at 35.05% of capacity, roughly 12 percentage points below the five-year average and well below last year's level of about 42.5%.

In LNG flows, Vortexa data showed EU-wide deliveries totaled 2.2 million tonnes (38 cargoes), 7% below the four-week average. EU LNG send-out averaged 4,200 GWh per day, around 5% below the recent average, the report added.

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